Friday, August 13, 2010

Signs of Impending Doom

I hate to write about all this disaster crap but each day brings new info that must be discussed. A new indicator of an impending economic crash has been identified as the Hindenburg Omen. While not a guarantee of a stock market free fall, it has been successful in the past. There are five factors that have to be crossed to allow for this Omen to occur, and when it does it takes 36 days for reconfirmation. If it is reconfirmed in 36 days, there is a 77% chance of a stock market crash in the next 40 days. All five factors of this prediction have been achieved making a crash more and more likely. Barron Magazine in June 2008 wrote about this occurrence and gave a stock market crash a 25% chance of happening within 120 days. Guess what? It did. And the odds are much bigger now. While we wait for conformation about the five factors to happen again, which are incredibly complicated requiring multiple economic conditions to happen on the same day, other events show a real problem headed our way.
The military buildup in the Middle East continues which we have to hope is a bluff by the Obama administration. But with even most Muslim nations against Iran getting a nuke, war is starting to seem more and more likely. There's only one problem with attacking Iran. We can"t win without nukes. A few years back, the government ran a wargame called Operation Dark Wind. In it, the USA was given the job to attack Iran with as little collateral damage as possible. All simulations failed. The only way to win was to use nuclear weapons on major cities and the coastline. This has not changed. Recently former Bush/Clinton/Bush Counter Terrorism expert, Richard Clarke, confirmed this same scenario four years ago in a New York Times interview. In it he talks about how various wargames over the past 15 years have all failed to win any conflict with Iran without nuclear weapons. Is this a path we are seriously going to take? Unfortunately we may have to. Iran with a nuclear bomb will destabilize the whole region. Chances of all out nuclear war go up significantly in such a scenario. So limited nuclear war now or all out later seems like a no brainier. The consequences of this conflict will be devastating. Oil prices will skyrocket, the economy Will fall apart and Muslims Will take the blame for everything. If this is to occur, it will happen within the next eight weeks. If we make it to November, we Will have dodged a bullet. At least until March.

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