U.S. babies are dying at an increased rate. While the United States spends billions on medical care, as of 2006, the US ranked 28th in the world in infant mortality, more than twice that of the lowest ranked countries. (DHHS, CDC, National Center for Health Statistics. Health United States 2010, Table 20, p. 131, February 2011.)
The recent CDC Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report indicates that eight cities in the northwest U.S. (Boise ID, Seattle WA, Portland OR, plus the northern California cities of Santa Cruz, Sacramento, San Francisco, San Jose, and Berkeley) reported the following data on deaths among those younger than one year of age:
4 weeks ending March 19, 2011 - 37 deaths (avg. 9.25 per week)
10 weeks ending May 28, 2011 - 125 deaths (avg.12.50 per week)
This amounts to an increase of 35% (the total for the entire U.S. rose about 2.3%), and is statistically significant. Of further significance is that those dates include the four weeks before and the ten weeks after the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant disaster. In 2001 the infant mortality was 6.834 per 1000 live births, increasing to 6.845 in 2007. All years from 2002 to 2007 were higher than the 2001 rate.
Spewing from the Fukushima reactor are radioactive isotopes including those of iodine (I-131), strontium (Sr-90) and cesium (Cs-134 and Cs-137) all of which are taken up in food and water. Iodine is concentrated in the thyroid, Sr-90 in bones and teeth and Cs-134 and Cs-137 in soft tissues, including the heart. The unborn and babies are more vulnerable because the cells are rapidly dividing and the delivered dose is proportionally larger than that delivered to an adult.
Data from Chernobyl, which exploded 25 years ago, clearly shows increased numbers of sick and weak newborns and increased numbers of deaths in the unborn and newborns, especially soon after the meltdown. These occurred in Europe as well as the former Soviet Union. Similar findings are also seen in wildlife living in areas with increased radioactive fallout levels.
The Dept of Nuclear Energy have released their data for food and topsoil for the Northern California Coast and the results are not encouraging. So far, they have measured grass, wild mushrooms, spinach, strawberries, cilantro, kale, and arugula. Of these, strawberries and topsoil are still showing high levels of CS-134 and 137 and all of the above at some point have also registered above safe limits.
If these stats are true and I have no reason to doubt their validity, then my previous warning holds true and all pregnant mothers in these regions should leave immediately. Your baby's life is at risk.
Sunday, June 12, 2011
Saturday, June 11, 2011
DOUCHEBAG OF THE WEEK: JANET NAPOLITANO AND THE TSA
Having gone through my own near arrest at the hands of the TSA, Janet Napolitano continues to be one the worst people at her job that I have ever seen. George Bush after a lobotomy and ingesting a ton of lithium would be better than this cow. Let's see those runner ups.
1)The Main Stream Media (MSM)- This week all that happened world wide was Weinergate, Sarah Palin on her vacation/I wanna be President maybe tour, Casey Anthony's trial, and the whole sale destruction of Arizona by wildfires. That's about it. They seem to have forgotten key stories like Venezuela severing all ties with the US which may or not be true. It has only appeared on Iranian media so it's veracity is most likely doubtful. I've read their news. It's North Korean lite. But, it would be nice if the MSM at least addressed this issue, making Iran look more foolish if it is indeed false, and an easy win for our side. How about stories about how police are becoming more and more out of control? Or the flipside where gang violence is increasing as the youth of this country finds lesser and lesser chances for achievement? The media is Corporate owned and have their own agenda. That's why I'm hoping that you readers out there spread the word about this site. I deal in facts, not half truths and I'm happy to debate anybody about what I write here. Truth may be on my side but I'm not so arrogant to not admit when I am wrong which does happen on occasion. No one is right every time. Not even me. Rats.
2)The Economy- If plummeting down a steep cliff is fun keep watching the Dow as politics, world wide issues and China all accidentally conspire to run our economy off the rails. We have done nothing to fix the problem over these past three years (way to go Obama and our worthless Congress and Supreme Court). As a result, as seen in previous posts, we are headed for a ditch the size of the Grand Canyon. Fear is spreading. TV ads are being pre sold in a rate unseen in the media as many executives feel the economy is headed south and they won't get the same rates a few months from now. Economists are becoming increasingly nervous about treasury bonds, gas prices and a creeping inflation that is wiping many people out. Add the fact that no good jobs are being created all lead to one earth shattering kaboom. The cherry on top is the fact that housing prices are going to slide more than at any point during the Great Depression to 37%, way above the 30% high in the 1930's. So what's the main cause for all this doom and gloom. See below and tell me you're surprised.
3)Republicans- This playing chicken with the debt ceiling is already causing the exact havoc that they all said would NEVER happen. Maybe you assh#$es should stop figuring out new ways to humiliate the President and look and around and see F%^KING ROME IS BURNING. The Chinese are selling off our treasuries like they came from Fukishima. Here's a quote:
In our opinion, the United States has already been defaulting," Guan Jianzhong, president of Dagong Global Credit Rating Co. Ltd., the only Chinese agency that gives sovereign ratings, was quoted by the Global Times saying.
Washington had already defaulted on its loans by allowing the dollar to weaken against other currencies -- eroding the wealth of creditors including China, Guan said
The US government will run out of room to spend more on August 2 unless Congress bumps up the borrowing limit beyond $14.29 trillion -- but Republicans are refusing to support such a move until a deficit cutting deal is reached.
Ratings agency Fitch on Wednesday joined Moody's and Standard & Poor's to warn the United States could lose its first-class credit rating if it fails to raise its debt ceiling to avoid defaulting on loans.
A downgrade could sharply raise US borrowing costs, worsening the country's already dire fiscal position, and send shock waves through the financial world, which has long considered US debt a benchmark among safe-haven investments.
Beijing cut its holdings of US Treasury securities for the fifth month in a row to $1.145 trillion in March, down $9.2 billion from February and 2.6 percent less than October's peak of $1.175 trillion, US data showed last month.
Does any of that sound like good news? Oddly it is also what every good economist said would happen if we default on the debt ceiling and it's happening right now not in some imaginary future Republicans live in where no one is poor, free markets work perfectly and the 1950's never ended. Too bad that's not what is occurring. And here's the funny part. There is a huge number of people who think that they ARE the answer. Idiots. Vote for a majority of Republicans and watch your standard of living end.
4)The Police- There are so many stories of police brutality this week I can't even begin to list them here. Google it and see how many hits you get. Frightening.
5)TSA and Napolitano- I was nearly arrested last week after my girlfriend was pulled aside by the Philadelphia TSA for what I thought was going to be a good ole fashioned groping. She has issues with that, and who wouldn't, and she started having a fit after being pulled aside to stand in a small roped off enclosure. They wisely just checked her hands for explosives and let her go but, for a few minutes, I thought for sure they were going to touch her head to toe, something she would never have allowed. I was about to get my camera to film the whole thing when they let her go and we left to catch out flight. I'll never get her on a plane again until they fix this. Had this escalated, I have no idea what would have happened but I'm fairly certain my arrest would have been imminent because I wouldn't have stopped filming until they tased me. And I have quite the temper if you make me angry. Plus ten years of martial arts expertise. Trust me, this could have gotten really ugly.
As if my personal experience wasn't enough, this week the TSA manhandled a mentally challenged 29 year old and confiscated his toy hammer that he had since he was nine. They later said they went too far. Shocker. They also want to prevent ALL filming at check points. So in other words, they want to rape you and not provide any evidence of said crime. Nazi Germany here we come. And speaking of Nazis, let see what our douchebag of the week had to say. Trust me it's a doozy. Ladies and Gentlemen, I give you the comic genuis of Janet Napolitano:
"You’re not using good logic there. You’ve got to use actual intelligence that you received. And, so, you might — all you’ve given me is a kind of status. You have not given me a technique for tactic or behavior. Something that would suggest somebody is not Muslim, but Islamic, that has actually moved into the category of violent extremists,” Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano said at a forum on U.S. security and preventing terrorist attacks.
“We have ways to make some of those cuts. And they involve the intel that comes in, the analysis that goes on. For example, we often times, for travelers entering the United States, we won’t not do what is called a secondary inspection just because they are a 35-year- old male who appears to be Muslim, whatever that means. But we know from intelligence that if they have a certain travel pattern over a certain period of time, that should cause us to ask some more significant questions than if we don’t.”
In other words, my quiet, tiny Japanese girlfriend poses a threat but Akmed Mohammed from the Sudan should just pass right through because we don't want to hurt his feelings? ARE YOU HIGH? As for those travel patterns you speak so highly about Janet, that would have stopped the underwear bomber, which it didn't. Or the Times Square bomber from getting on the plane and almost escaping. Your system sucks. Your own security force gets weapons through nine times out of ten. Not only is the TSA breaking the law, humiliating passengers and causing the tourism rate to plummet, but they are inept as well. I rarely say this and mean it, but I hope you get cancer and die a painful death. I loathe your existence and you could quite possibly be one of the worst public officials of all time. Your idiocy is staggering. I am STUNNED every time you say anything. You are indeed Douchebag of the Century. Congratulation on your new exalted title bitch.
1)The Main Stream Media (MSM)- This week all that happened world wide was Weinergate, Sarah Palin on her vacation/I wanna be President maybe tour, Casey Anthony's trial, and the whole sale destruction of Arizona by wildfires. That's about it. They seem to have forgotten key stories like Venezuela severing all ties with the US which may or not be true. It has only appeared on Iranian media so it's veracity is most likely doubtful. I've read their news. It's North Korean lite. But, it would be nice if the MSM at least addressed this issue, making Iran look more foolish if it is indeed false, and an easy win for our side. How about stories about how police are becoming more and more out of control? Or the flipside where gang violence is increasing as the youth of this country finds lesser and lesser chances for achievement? The media is Corporate owned and have their own agenda. That's why I'm hoping that you readers out there spread the word about this site. I deal in facts, not half truths and I'm happy to debate anybody about what I write here. Truth may be on my side but I'm not so arrogant to not admit when I am wrong which does happen on occasion. No one is right every time. Not even me. Rats.
2)The Economy- If plummeting down a steep cliff is fun keep watching the Dow as politics, world wide issues and China all accidentally conspire to run our economy off the rails. We have done nothing to fix the problem over these past three years (way to go Obama and our worthless Congress and Supreme Court). As a result, as seen in previous posts, we are headed for a ditch the size of the Grand Canyon. Fear is spreading. TV ads are being pre sold in a rate unseen in the media as many executives feel the economy is headed south and they won't get the same rates a few months from now. Economists are becoming increasingly nervous about treasury bonds, gas prices and a creeping inflation that is wiping many people out. Add the fact that no good jobs are being created all lead to one earth shattering kaboom. The cherry on top is the fact that housing prices are going to slide more than at any point during the Great Depression to 37%, way above the 30% high in the 1930's. So what's the main cause for all this doom and gloom. See below and tell me you're surprised.
3)Republicans- This playing chicken with the debt ceiling is already causing the exact havoc that they all said would NEVER happen. Maybe you assh#$es should stop figuring out new ways to humiliate the President and look and around and see F%^KING ROME IS BURNING. The Chinese are selling off our treasuries like they came from Fukishima. Here's a quote:
In our opinion, the United States has already been defaulting," Guan Jianzhong, president of Dagong Global Credit Rating Co. Ltd., the only Chinese agency that gives sovereign ratings, was quoted by the Global Times saying.
Washington had already defaulted on its loans by allowing the dollar to weaken against other currencies -- eroding the wealth of creditors including China, Guan said
The US government will run out of room to spend more on August 2 unless Congress bumps up the borrowing limit beyond $14.29 trillion -- but Republicans are refusing to support such a move until a deficit cutting deal is reached.
Ratings agency Fitch on Wednesday joined Moody's and Standard & Poor's to warn the United States could lose its first-class credit rating if it fails to raise its debt ceiling to avoid defaulting on loans.
A downgrade could sharply raise US borrowing costs, worsening the country's already dire fiscal position, and send shock waves through the financial world, which has long considered US debt a benchmark among safe-haven investments.
Beijing cut its holdings of US Treasury securities for the fifth month in a row to $1.145 trillion in March, down $9.2 billion from February and 2.6 percent less than October's peak of $1.175 trillion, US data showed last month.
Does any of that sound like good news? Oddly it is also what every good economist said would happen if we default on the debt ceiling and it's happening right now not in some imaginary future Republicans live in where no one is poor, free markets work perfectly and the 1950's never ended. Too bad that's not what is occurring. And here's the funny part. There is a huge number of people who think that they ARE the answer. Idiots. Vote for a majority of Republicans and watch your standard of living end.
4)The Police- There are so many stories of police brutality this week I can't even begin to list them here. Google it and see how many hits you get. Frightening.
5)TSA and Napolitano- I was nearly arrested last week after my girlfriend was pulled aside by the Philadelphia TSA for what I thought was going to be a good ole fashioned groping. She has issues with that, and who wouldn't, and she started having a fit after being pulled aside to stand in a small roped off enclosure. They wisely just checked her hands for explosives and let her go but, for a few minutes, I thought for sure they were going to touch her head to toe, something she would never have allowed. I was about to get my camera to film the whole thing when they let her go and we left to catch out flight. I'll never get her on a plane again until they fix this. Had this escalated, I have no idea what would have happened but I'm fairly certain my arrest would have been imminent because I wouldn't have stopped filming until they tased me. And I have quite the temper if you make me angry. Plus ten years of martial arts expertise. Trust me, this could have gotten really ugly.
As if my personal experience wasn't enough, this week the TSA manhandled a mentally challenged 29 year old and confiscated his toy hammer that he had since he was nine. They later said they went too far. Shocker. They also want to prevent ALL filming at check points. So in other words, they want to rape you and not provide any evidence of said crime. Nazi Germany here we come. And speaking of Nazis, let see what our douchebag of the week had to say. Trust me it's a doozy. Ladies and Gentlemen, I give you the comic genuis of Janet Napolitano:
"You’re not using good logic there. You’ve got to use actual intelligence that you received. And, so, you might — all you’ve given me is a kind of status. You have not given me a technique for tactic or behavior. Something that would suggest somebody is not Muslim, but Islamic, that has actually moved into the category of violent extremists,” Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano said at a forum on U.S. security and preventing terrorist attacks.
“We have ways to make some of those cuts. And they involve the intel that comes in, the analysis that goes on. For example, we often times, for travelers entering the United States, we won’t not do what is called a secondary inspection just because they are a 35-year- old male who appears to be Muslim, whatever that means. But we know from intelligence that if they have a certain travel pattern over a certain period of time, that should cause us to ask some more significant questions than if we don’t.”
In other words, my quiet, tiny Japanese girlfriend poses a threat but Akmed Mohammed from the Sudan should just pass right through because we don't want to hurt his feelings? ARE YOU HIGH? As for those travel patterns you speak so highly about Janet, that would have stopped the underwear bomber, which it didn't. Or the Times Square bomber from getting on the plane and almost escaping. Your system sucks. Your own security force gets weapons through nine times out of ten. Not only is the TSA breaking the law, humiliating passengers and causing the tourism rate to plummet, but they are inept as well. I rarely say this and mean it, but I hope you get cancer and die a painful death. I loathe your existence and you could quite possibly be one of the worst public officials of all time. Your idiocy is staggering. I am STUNNED every time you say anything. You are indeed Douchebag of the Century. Congratulation on your new exalted title bitch.
Thursday, June 9, 2011
The Next Great Depression is Here
I wish I had better news for which I have none. As a matter of fact I can't remember the last time I have seen things this bad. The only good news I have seen is that finally, a large number of Americans are seeing it too. A recent poll by CNN said forty eight percent of Americans think we'll be in another Great Depression in the next twelve months. The bad news is that we are already there.
Our jobs numbers, when done without the Hollywood math that Washington uses, are at similar points when compared with Depression era figures. After looking at all the figures, which include many individuals not counted in the federal stat, show the actual unemployment rate somewhere between 19-25%. This rate has remained, more or less unchanged, for years. This means it has also lasted longer than at any point during the Depression who after three years of these numbers finally saw some change. We so far have seen worse numbers, not better, and the future looks equally bleak
The housing market has all but crashed again with prices falling to pre-2002 levels. The slide by the housing market is already worse than at any point during the Depression, a fact no one disputes, not even the government or media. With the foreclosure market in total chaos, these numbers are not likely to rebound any time soon.
So what about the governments insistence that we have had several straight quarters of growth? Lies. True, the economic definition of a Depression is four straight quarters of negative growth, along with high unemployment and mounting housing losses. Well check on the last two. Let's look at the first shall we.
Using GDP as a measure for economic recovery is a statisticians greatest lie. The GDP is being manipulated up by deficit spending. Over the last 2.5 years, the US Federal government has spent over $3 Trillion (and another 9 billion in credit which we won't even count in these figures) in deficit spending. That artificially drives up GDP. If we are at a 1.8% GDP growth model, what happens if you remove that deficit spending? And what effect does quantitative easing (aka money printing)have on the GDP?
In 2010 we had a $14.7 Trillion GDP. What was the deficit spending by the US Federal government? $1.42 Trillion. In other words, the deficit spending is 9.6% of the GDP. And what was the stated GDP growth for 2010? 2.6%
So if the federal government did not deficit spend in 2010, what would have been the true GDP growth? Negative 7%.
Welcome to your New Depression. Enjoy. Think things are as bad as they going to get?Read below for more spectacular news.
The following are 10 signs that Wall Street is about to go into panic mode….
#1 According to The New York Post, nearly all of the major Wall Street banks are planning huge layoffs….
“Barclays Capital, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase and Morgan Stanley currently are among those financial institutions either weighing staff cuts or actually paring payroll”
#2 A new CNBC article claims that a “negative feedback loop” has “taken control” on Wall Street. Essentially what is happening is that bad economic news is creating an “environment of pessimism” which creates even more bad economic news, etc. etc.
#3 OPEC has announced that oil production levels will not be raised. This is likely to spook the financial markets and cause the price of oil to go up even higher in the coming weeks. The last time U.S. energy expenditures were over 9 percent of GDP was back in 2008 and at that point the economy rapidly plunged into a very deep recession. For the first time since 2008 we have reached the 9 percent figure again, and many on Wall Street fear that this could lead to bad things.
#4 QE2 will be wrapping up at the end of June, and many on Wall Street had been counting on yet another round of quantitative easing. Over the past couple of days, however, it has started to become clear that is just not going to happen – at least for now. In fact, Pimco’s co-chief investment officer, Bill Gross, is telling investors that for the Fed it will “be difficult to initiate a QE3“. But without artificial stimulation the U.S. economy may start really struggling again, and Wall Street knows this.
#5 Moody’s recently warned that it may downgrade the debt ratings of Bank of America, Citigroup and Wells Fargo. Bank stocks were on the cutting edge of the financial collapse of 2008, and it looks like that may happen again this time.
#6 Faith in the U.S. dollar continues to decline. Back on April 18th, Standard & Poor’s changed its outlook on U.S. government debt from “stable” to “negative” and warned that the U.S. could soon lose its AAA rating. China has been very busy dumping short-term U.S. government debt and there does not seem to be a lot of people (other than the Federal Reserve) that are eager to buy U.S. Treasuries right now.
#7 U.S. consumer confidence is already lower than it was back in September 2008 when Lehman Brothers collapsed. Consumer spending makes up approximately 70 percent of the U.S. economy and Wall Street is watching this number closely.
#8 A whole slew of bad economic news has been pouring in lately. Mike Riddell, a fund manager at M&G Investments in London, recently pointed out to CNBC some of the data points that have been particularly alarming….
“US house prices have fallen by more than 5 percent year on year, pending home sales have collapsed and existing home sales disappointed, the trend of improving jobless claims has arrested, first quarter GDP wasn’t revised upwards by the 0.4 percent forecast, durables goods orders shrank, manufacturing surveys from Philadelphia Fed, Richmond Fed and Chicago Fed were all very disappointing.”
#9 A whole lot of folks in the financial industry have been warning about the next financial collapse lately. For example, economist Nouriel Roubini recently made the following statement….
“I think right now we’re on the tipping point of a market correction. Data from the U.S., from Europe, from Japan, from China are suggesting an economic slowdown.”
#10 According to a new CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll, 48% of Americans believe that it is either “very likely” or “somewhat likely” that the United States will experience a “depression” within the next 12 months. Needless to say, Wall Street is highly influenced by the overall mood of the nation.
Once again, let’s hope that financial disaster can be averted for as long as possible. The last thing the United States needs right now is another major crisis.
America has been hit by a whole series of natural disasters in 2011. We have seen unprecedented tornadoes, historic flooding along the Mississippi River and Massachusetts, and horrible wildfires in Texas and in Arizona.
Thousands upon thousands of American families are deeply suffering tonight. Our new Soup Kitchens are the food stamps 43 million Americans rely on and which government seems determined to take back.
The TSA and police nationwide are becoming more and more Storm trooper than protector. Every day a new story pops up like the TSA manhandling a mentally challenged 29 year old who refused to let him take his tow hammer on board a plane. I had my own close call with the TSA this past weekend coming dangerous close to an arrest. I won't fly again.
The police are getting more and power, with Illinois being the worst place in the country to live. It is actually illegal there to tape public officials, cops judges, whatever, without getting arrested. One man faces 75 years for taping police who were HARASSING HIM. Unbelievable.
Venezuela cut all ties to the US today in a row over Iran. And war drums still sound as a vote on Syria this week at the UN, with China and Russia threatening to veto, may actually bring the whole institution down. British PM Cameron has warned that failing to protect Syrian citizens from dangerous despots sets a dangerous precedent and could make the UN at that point moot.
All this as we hear about Casey Anthony and Weiner's Weiner. Start looking at what's important because soon it may all go away and you will all be wondering what happened.
Our jobs numbers, when done without the Hollywood math that Washington uses, are at similar points when compared with Depression era figures. After looking at all the figures, which include many individuals not counted in the federal stat, show the actual unemployment rate somewhere between 19-25%. This rate has remained, more or less unchanged, for years. This means it has also lasted longer than at any point during the Depression who after three years of these numbers finally saw some change. We so far have seen worse numbers, not better, and the future looks equally bleak
The housing market has all but crashed again with prices falling to pre-2002 levels. The slide by the housing market is already worse than at any point during the Depression, a fact no one disputes, not even the government or media. With the foreclosure market in total chaos, these numbers are not likely to rebound any time soon.
So what about the governments insistence that we have had several straight quarters of growth? Lies. True, the economic definition of a Depression is four straight quarters of negative growth, along with high unemployment and mounting housing losses. Well check on the last two. Let's look at the first shall we.
Using GDP as a measure for economic recovery is a statisticians greatest lie. The GDP is being manipulated up by deficit spending. Over the last 2.5 years, the US Federal government has spent over $3 Trillion (and another 9 billion in credit which we won't even count in these figures) in deficit spending. That artificially drives up GDP. If we are at a 1.8% GDP growth model, what happens if you remove that deficit spending? And what effect does quantitative easing (aka money printing)have on the GDP?
In 2010 we had a $14.7 Trillion GDP. What was the deficit spending by the US Federal government? $1.42 Trillion. In other words, the deficit spending is 9.6% of the GDP. And what was the stated GDP growth for 2010? 2.6%
So if the federal government did not deficit spend in 2010, what would have been the true GDP growth? Negative 7%.
Welcome to your New Depression. Enjoy. Think things are as bad as they going to get?Read below for more spectacular news.
The following are 10 signs that Wall Street is about to go into panic mode….
#1 According to The New York Post, nearly all of the major Wall Street banks are planning huge layoffs….
“Barclays Capital, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase and Morgan Stanley currently are among those financial institutions either weighing staff cuts or actually paring payroll”
#2 A new CNBC article claims that a “negative feedback loop” has “taken control” on Wall Street. Essentially what is happening is that bad economic news is creating an “environment of pessimism” which creates even more bad economic news, etc. etc.
#3 OPEC has announced that oil production levels will not be raised. This is likely to spook the financial markets and cause the price of oil to go up even higher in the coming weeks. The last time U.S. energy expenditures were over 9 percent of GDP was back in 2008 and at that point the economy rapidly plunged into a very deep recession. For the first time since 2008 we have reached the 9 percent figure again, and many on Wall Street fear that this could lead to bad things.
#4 QE2 will be wrapping up at the end of June, and many on Wall Street had been counting on yet another round of quantitative easing. Over the past couple of days, however, it has started to become clear that is just not going to happen – at least for now. In fact, Pimco’s co-chief investment officer, Bill Gross, is telling investors that for the Fed it will “be difficult to initiate a QE3“. But without artificial stimulation the U.S. economy may start really struggling again, and Wall Street knows this.
#5 Moody’s recently warned that it may downgrade the debt ratings of Bank of America, Citigroup and Wells Fargo. Bank stocks were on the cutting edge of the financial collapse of 2008, and it looks like that may happen again this time.
#6 Faith in the U.S. dollar continues to decline. Back on April 18th, Standard & Poor’s changed its outlook on U.S. government debt from “stable” to “negative” and warned that the U.S. could soon lose its AAA rating. China has been very busy dumping short-term U.S. government debt and there does not seem to be a lot of people (other than the Federal Reserve) that are eager to buy U.S. Treasuries right now.
#7 U.S. consumer confidence is already lower than it was back in September 2008 when Lehman Brothers collapsed. Consumer spending makes up approximately 70 percent of the U.S. economy and Wall Street is watching this number closely.
#8 A whole slew of bad economic news has been pouring in lately. Mike Riddell, a fund manager at M&G Investments in London, recently pointed out to CNBC some of the data points that have been particularly alarming….
“US house prices have fallen by more than 5 percent year on year, pending home sales have collapsed and existing home sales disappointed, the trend of improving jobless claims has arrested, first quarter GDP wasn’t revised upwards by the 0.4 percent forecast, durables goods orders shrank, manufacturing surveys from Philadelphia Fed, Richmond Fed and Chicago Fed were all very disappointing.”
#9 A whole lot of folks in the financial industry have been warning about the next financial collapse lately. For example, economist Nouriel Roubini recently made the following statement….
“I think right now we’re on the tipping point of a market correction. Data from the U.S., from Europe, from Japan, from China are suggesting an economic slowdown.”
#10 According to a new CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll, 48% of Americans believe that it is either “very likely” or “somewhat likely” that the United States will experience a “depression” within the next 12 months. Needless to say, Wall Street is highly influenced by the overall mood of the nation.
Once again, let’s hope that financial disaster can be averted for as long as possible. The last thing the United States needs right now is another major crisis.
America has been hit by a whole series of natural disasters in 2011. We have seen unprecedented tornadoes, historic flooding along the Mississippi River and Massachusetts, and horrible wildfires in Texas and in Arizona.
Thousands upon thousands of American families are deeply suffering tonight. Our new Soup Kitchens are the food stamps 43 million Americans rely on and which government seems determined to take back.
The TSA and police nationwide are becoming more and more Storm trooper than protector. Every day a new story pops up like the TSA manhandling a mentally challenged 29 year old who refused to let him take his tow hammer on board a plane. I had my own close call with the TSA this past weekend coming dangerous close to an arrest. I won't fly again.
The police are getting more and power, with Illinois being the worst place in the country to live. It is actually illegal there to tape public officials, cops judges, whatever, without getting arrested. One man faces 75 years for taping police who were HARASSING HIM. Unbelievable.
Venezuela cut all ties to the US today in a row over Iran. And war drums still sound as a vote on Syria this week at the UN, with China and Russia threatening to veto, may actually bring the whole institution down. British PM Cameron has warned that failing to protect Syrian citizens from dangerous despots sets a dangerous precedent and could make the UN at that point moot.
All this as we hear about Casey Anthony and Weiner's Weiner. Start looking at what's important because soon it may all go away and you will all be wondering what happened.
Wednesday, June 8, 2011
Ominous War Drums Sound Again In The Middle East
WTF is wrong with Iran? Every year, they and North Korea play some insane game of Armageddon chicken that's getting increasingly old. Sooner or later, we're not going to be able to swerve in time. Recently, North Korea played a deadly round of this crap that killed dozens of innocent people and nearly led to a new war. Now comes Iran screaming like a child having a tantrum that they want nukes and that's that.
On Tuesday, June 7, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad termed Iran's nuclear program "a train with no brakes or reverse gear" after Tehran announced the deployment of submarines in the Red Sea. Wednesday, Iran's vice president and atomic chief Fereydoon Abbasi Davani said Iran's 20-percent uranium enrichment work would be transferred from Natanz to Fordo this summer. Enrichment would be tripled, he said, by improved centrifuges.
Let that last paragraph sink in for a minute. Iran just said "We're getting nukes and there's nothing you can do about it Israel. ;-P MMMMMMMLLLLLLLLLLLLLLAAAAAAAAAA. Oh and by the way everyone, we're sending in our new subs to the Red Sea that we've secretly built and whose specs are largely unknown just to really stick it in."
I'm pretty sure, the Israelis are not going to like that one bit. A nuclear armed Iran would be very, very bad. Their response may happen sooner than later and a pre nuclear strike of Iran is not totally out of the question in this new scenario.
The funny thing about all this is, we've known about this facility being built in Frodo since 2009. Obama and Sarkozy went on television and announced their findings of this new facility in Frodo and demanded access. They were granted immediate access to which three UN teams found no evidence of nuclear facilities. Yet, here we are two years later and we find out from Iran that Frodo is indeed a nuclear facility. How does one get a job in IEAE? A brain does not seem to be one of them and these idiots are as reliable as the Army Corp of Engineers or the FBI in doing anything correct. Check out their success record? They did the same thing in North Korea and Pakistan. They couldn't find a radioactive source if they drank it themselves.
Iran just accused the US and Isreal of provoking war with them which as far as I can tell seems to be from us doing absolutley nothing. It's actually shocking how little we are actually doing. This is a common feint in war where you blame the enemy for aggression, like Hitler and the Japanese in WW2 who both used this trick.
So the war drums beat once again. Like they do every year. Only this time we keep hearing about nukes. And that is new. And frightening.
On Tuesday, June 7, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad termed Iran's nuclear program "a train with no brakes or reverse gear" after Tehran announced the deployment of submarines in the Red Sea. Wednesday, Iran's vice president and atomic chief Fereydoon Abbasi Davani said Iran's 20-percent uranium enrichment work would be transferred from Natanz to Fordo this summer. Enrichment would be tripled, he said, by improved centrifuges.
Let that last paragraph sink in for a minute. Iran just said "We're getting nukes and there's nothing you can do about it Israel. ;-P MMMMMMMLLLLLLLLLLLLLLAAAAAAAAAA. Oh and by the way everyone, we're sending in our new subs to the Red Sea that we've secretly built and whose specs are largely unknown just to really stick it in."
I'm pretty sure, the Israelis are not going to like that one bit. A nuclear armed Iran would be very, very bad. Their response may happen sooner than later and a pre nuclear strike of Iran is not totally out of the question in this new scenario.
The funny thing about all this is, we've known about this facility being built in Frodo since 2009. Obama and Sarkozy went on television and announced their findings of this new facility in Frodo and demanded access. They were granted immediate access to which three UN teams found no evidence of nuclear facilities. Yet, here we are two years later and we find out from Iran that Frodo is indeed a nuclear facility. How does one get a job in IEAE? A brain does not seem to be one of them and these idiots are as reliable as the Army Corp of Engineers or the FBI in doing anything correct. Check out their success record? They did the same thing in North Korea and Pakistan. They couldn't find a radioactive source if they drank it themselves.
Iran just accused the US and Isreal of provoking war with them which as far as I can tell seems to be from us doing absolutley nothing. It's actually shocking how little we are actually doing. This is a common feint in war where you blame the enemy for aggression, like Hitler and the Japanese in WW2 who both used this trick.
So the war drums beat once again. Like they do every year. Only this time we keep hearing about nukes. And that is new. And frightening.
More Gestapo Tacitics In Amerika
As reprinted from the Daily Mail
A father was dragged from his home and handcuffed in front of his children by a SWAT team looking for his estranged wife - to collect her unpaid student loans.
A stunned Kenneth Wright had his front door kicked in by the raiding party at 6 am yesterday before being dragged onto his front porch, handcuffed and led to a police car with his three children.
He says he was then detained for six hours while officers looked for his wife - who no longer lives at the house.
Mr Wright was later told by Stockton police that the order to send in the SWAT team came from The U.S. Department of Education who were looking for his estranged wife to collect defaulted loan payments.
Speaking to ABC News 10, a visibly shaken Mr Wright described what happened when he was woken by a banging on his front door.
He said: 'I look out of my window and I see 15 police officers.
Dressed in his boxer shorts, Mr Wright says he rushed downstairs and was about to open the door when it was kicked open.
An officer then grabbed him by the neck before dragging him out onto the front lawn.
His 3, 7, and 11-year-old children were also removed by officers and put in a waiting police car.
'He had his knee on my back and I had no idea why they were there,' Mr Wright said.
'They put me in handcuffs in that hot patrol car for six hours, traumatising my kids.'
The Department for Education refused to comment on the incident, saying they would not do so until the case was closed.
They did however confirm that their Office of the Inspector General had issued the search warrant.
The office has its own branch of federal agents that carry out search warrants and investigations.
Nice to know that we can be incarcerated and possibly killed for owing money to a school. With debtors prisons back (see previous articles on how to lose your home for owing as little as 50$ on a water bill) we need to start standing up for ourselves or else all our freedoms are going to be lost. These shock troop tactics cannot stand. Remember, anybody entering your house without cause is an enemy, cop or not. Shoot first and ask questions later unless you want to wind up in bodybag yourself. Ask the soldier from Arizona what he should have done when cop Nazis stormed his house and filled him full of holes. The Law is no longer here to protect you but to do the bidding of our new overlords. Until we move en masse to Washington and protest on the National Mall we are all in deep trouble. Time is running out for everyone.
A father was dragged from his home and handcuffed in front of his children by a SWAT team looking for his estranged wife - to collect her unpaid student loans.
A stunned Kenneth Wright had his front door kicked in by the raiding party at 6 am yesterday before being dragged onto his front porch, handcuffed and led to a police car with his three children.
He says he was then detained for six hours while officers looked for his wife - who no longer lives at the house.
Mr Wright was later told by Stockton police that the order to send in the SWAT team came from The U.S. Department of Education who were looking for his estranged wife to collect defaulted loan payments.
Speaking to ABC News 10, a visibly shaken Mr Wright described what happened when he was woken by a banging on his front door.
He said: 'I look out of my window and I see 15 police officers.
Dressed in his boxer shorts, Mr Wright says he rushed downstairs and was about to open the door when it was kicked open.
An officer then grabbed him by the neck before dragging him out onto the front lawn.
His 3, 7, and 11-year-old children were also removed by officers and put in a waiting police car.
'He had his knee on my back and I had no idea why they were there,' Mr Wright said.
'They put me in handcuffs in that hot patrol car for six hours, traumatising my kids.'
The Department for Education refused to comment on the incident, saying they would not do so until the case was closed.
They did however confirm that their Office of the Inspector General had issued the search warrant.
The office has its own branch of federal agents that carry out search warrants and investigations.
Nice to know that we can be incarcerated and possibly killed for owing money to a school. With debtors prisons back (see previous articles on how to lose your home for owing as little as 50$ on a water bill) we need to start standing up for ourselves or else all our freedoms are going to be lost. These shock troop tactics cannot stand. Remember, anybody entering your house without cause is an enemy, cop or not. Shoot first and ask questions later unless you want to wind up in bodybag yourself. Ask the soldier from Arizona what he should have done when cop Nazis stormed his house and filled him full of holes. The Law is no longer here to protect you but to do the bidding of our new overlords. Until we move en masse to Washington and protest on the National Mall we are all in deep trouble. Time is running out for everyone.
Monday, June 6, 2011
DOUCHEBAG OF THE WEEK: ANTHONY WEINER
No question about who was the big loser the week. Let's see those runner ups.
1)Sarah Palin- Holy Christ can this woman get any dumber. This week Captain Brainless tried to answer a question about the ride of Paul Revere and got absolutely everything wrong. Revere did not warn the British that they were not going to take away the colonists arms nor did he think of himself as a British subject. In response Palin supporters went on Wikipedia and tried to reverse history which was subsequently fixed as having no basis in fact. Palin said it was another gotcha moment. Right. Any jerk who supports this fool should be made an example of.
2)Weather and climate deniers- This week it was mentioned by an activist that any climate denier should have it tattooed on their forehead like a star of David. I'm beginning to agree with him. I keep hearing how weather is dynamic and changes all the time and rare weather patterns are nothing to worry about. I would agree if the science supported that which it doesn't. Yes, rare weather patterns happen all the time and will continue to happen. Rare weather patterns happening over and over is beyond the realm of statistical probability. This week, in my neck of the woods we had four tornadoes touch down, one not far from where I live. And while tornados are rare and one of the deadliest happened in Worcester in the 1950's, we've never had four touch down at once, have them be all strong F4's and go for miles on end. Add this to records being broke world wide every day and you have the proof that our weather is indeed changing.
3)Republicans- Yes the Republicans have started their race to not win the White House which should have been a cake walk. But low and behold they have all said for the most part they like Paul Ryan's suicidal Medicare plan which is about as popular as a root canal. Plus, in Texas Perry and his Lt. Governor missed a prime opportunity to win favor with the public by siding with the TSA in the killing of the recent anti grope bill. Since it has become uber apparent that the people really wanted the bill and have protested en masse since, they have re-started the plan but may be too little too late. If Perry wanted to run for President they missed a rare opportunity. Right now, none of these idiots can beat a very beatable President.
4)Anthony Weiner- The last name alone make this a funny story as this moron posted a picture of him in his undies and now new pictures have also surfaced, destroying his credibility. He seemed incapable of answering a straight question, got hostile with the press as if this was a non story and now that a new girl has come forward with equally damning pictures, so his career is toast. So congratulations, Weiner you are douchebag of the week.
1)Sarah Palin- Holy Christ can this woman get any dumber. This week Captain Brainless tried to answer a question about the ride of Paul Revere and got absolutely everything wrong. Revere did not warn the British that they were not going to take away the colonists arms nor did he think of himself as a British subject. In response Palin supporters went on Wikipedia and tried to reverse history which was subsequently fixed as having no basis in fact. Palin said it was another gotcha moment. Right. Any jerk who supports this fool should be made an example of.
2)Weather and climate deniers- This week it was mentioned by an activist that any climate denier should have it tattooed on their forehead like a star of David. I'm beginning to agree with him. I keep hearing how weather is dynamic and changes all the time and rare weather patterns are nothing to worry about. I would agree if the science supported that which it doesn't. Yes, rare weather patterns happen all the time and will continue to happen. Rare weather patterns happening over and over is beyond the realm of statistical probability. This week, in my neck of the woods we had four tornadoes touch down, one not far from where I live. And while tornados are rare and one of the deadliest happened in Worcester in the 1950's, we've never had four touch down at once, have them be all strong F4's and go for miles on end. Add this to records being broke world wide every day and you have the proof that our weather is indeed changing.
3)Republicans- Yes the Republicans have started their race to not win the White House which should have been a cake walk. But low and behold they have all said for the most part they like Paul Ryan's suicidal Medicare plan which is about as popular as a root canal. Plus, in Texas Perry and his Lt. Governor missed a prime opportunity to win favor with the public by siding with the TSA in the killing of the recent anti grope bill. Since it has become uber apparent that the people really wanted the bill and have protested en masse since, they have re-started the plan but may be too little too late. If Perry wanted to run for President they missed a rare opportunity. Right now, none of these idiots can beat a very beatable President.
4)Anthony Weiner- The last name alone make this a funny story as this moron posted a picture of him in his undies and now new pictures have also surfaced, destroying his credibility. He seemed incapable of answering a straight question, got hostile with the press as if this was a non story and now that a new girl has come forward with equally damning pictures, so his career is toast. So congratulations, Weiner you are douchebag of the week.
Thursday, June 2, 2011
Where The Economy Is Headed: Think South. Deep South.
From CNBC
The last month has been a horror show for the U.S. economy, with economic data falling off a cliff, according to Mike Riddell, a fund manager at M&G Investments in London.
"It seems that almost every bit of data about the health of the US economy has disappointed expectations recently," said Riddell, in a note sent to CNBC on Wednesday.
"US house prices have fallen by more than 5 percent year on year, pending home sales have collapsed and existing home sales disappointed, the trend of improving jobless claims has arrested, first quarter GDP wasn’t revised upwards by the 0.4 percent forecast, durables goods orders shrank, manufacturing surveys from Philadelphia Fed, Richmond Fed and Chicago Fed were all very disappointing."
"And that’s just in the last week and a bit," said Riddell.
Pointing to the dramatic turnaround in the Citigroup "Economic Surprise Index" for the United States, Riddell said the tumble in a matter of months to negative from positive is almost as bad as the situation before the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008.
Wall Street is having a hard time figuring out what to do now that the U.S. economy appears to be sputtering and yields are so low, Peter Yastrow, market strategist for Yastrow Origer, told CNBC.
"What we’ve got right now is almost near panic going on with money managers and people who are responsible for money," he said. "They can not find a yield and you just don’t want to be putting your money into commodities or things that are punts that might work out or they might not depending on what happens with the economy.
"We need to find real yield and real returns on these assets. You see bad data, you see Treasurys rally, you see all bonds and all fixed-income rally and then the people who are betting against the U.S. economy start getting bearish on stocks. That’s a huge mistake."
Stocks extended losses after the manufacturing fell below expectations in May and the private sector added only 38,000 jobs during the month.
"Interest rates are amazingly low and that, thanks to Ben Bernanke, is driving everything," Yastrow said. "We’re on the verge of a great, great depression. The [Federal Reserve] knows it.
"We have many, many homeowners that are totally underwater here and cannot get out from under. The technology frontier is limited right now. We definitely have an innovation slowdown and the economy’s gonna suffer."
However, he said he wouldn’t sell stocks.
"Any bears out there better be careful because the dividend yields on these stocks look awesome relative to all the other investment vehicles out there," Yastrow said. "So bears are going to have to find a new way to express their discontent with the U.S. economy."
And here's Robert Reich's take on the whole thing.
The US economy was supposed to be in bloom by late spring, but it is hardly growing at all. Expectations for second-quarter growth are not much better than the measly 1.8 per cent annualised rate of the first quarter. That is not nearly fast enough to reduce America’s ferociously high level of unemployment. The labour department will tell us on Friday whether the jobs situation improved in May, but there has been no sign of a surge in hiring. Nor in wages. Average hourly earnings of production and non-supervisory employees – who make up 80 per cent of non-government workers – dropped to $8.76 in April. Adjusted for inflation, that’s lower than they were in the depths of the recession.
Meanwhile, housing prices continue to fall. They are now 33 per cent below their 2006 peak. That is a bigger drop than recorded in the Great Depression. Homes are the largest single asset of the American middle class, so as housing prices drop many Americans feel poorer. All of this is contributing to a general gloominess. Not surprisingly, consumer confidence is also down.
The recovery has stalled. It is unlikely that America will find itself back in recession but the possibility of a double dip cannot be dismissed. The problem is not on the supply side of the ledger. Corporate profits are still healthy. Big companies continue to sit on a cash hoard. Large and middle-sized companies can easily borrow more, at low rates. The problem is on the demand side. American consumers, who constitute 70 per cent of the total economy, cannot and will not buy enough to get it moving. They justifiably worry that they will not be able to pay their bills, or afford to send their children to college, or to retire. Banks, with equal justification, are reluctant to lend to them. But as long as consumers hold back, companies remain reluctant to hire new workers or raise the wages of current ones, feeding the vicious cycle.
The timing is unfortunate. Foreign consumers will not help much even if the dollar continues to slide. Europe’s debt crisis and embrace of austerity, Japan’s tragedy and China’s fiscal tightening have reduced global demand. At the same time, the federal stimulus in the US has almost run its course. The Federal Reserve is about to end its $600bn of purchases of Treasury bills, designed to bring down long-term interest rates and make it easier for homeowners to refinance. Worse yet, state governments – starved for revenue and constitutionally barred from running deficits – continue to cut programmes. Local governments are now in worse shape, laying off platoons of teachers and firefighters.
Under normal circumstances, this would be the time for the federal government to take bold action to ward off a double dip. For example, it could put more cash in peoples’ pockets while giving employers an extra incentive to hire by exempting the first $20,000 of earnings from payroll taxes, for a year or two. It could lend money to state and local governments. It could launch a new Work Projects Administration (modelled after its antecedent during the Great Depression) to put the long-term unemployed to work on public projects. It could amend the bankruptcy law to allow people to include their prime residences in personal bankruptcy, thereby giving homeowners more leverage to get mortgage lenders to mitigate the terms of their loans.
But these are not normal circumstances. America has been through a devastating recession that poked a giant hole in the federal budget. And with a presidential election coming up next year, both parties are already manoeuvring for tactical advantage. Since taking over the House of Representatives in January, Republicans have focused on cutting government spending and paring back regulations. Their colleagues in the Senate, whose leader has proclaimed his major goal to unseat President Barack Obama, are almost as single-minded. Cynics might suspect Republicans of quietly hoping the economy stays rotten up until election day.
Democrats, meanwhile, are behaving as if they are powerless to affect the economy, even though a Democrat occupies the White House and his appointees run the federal government. They would rather not dwell on the slowdown because they do not want to spook the bond market or add to the prevailing gloom (Jimmy Carter’s ill-fated comment about the nation’s “malaise” during the stagflation of the late 1970s has served as a permanent admonition for presidents to stay upbeat). Democrats are staking their electoral hopes on continuing disarray among Republican presidential aspirants, as well as the Republicans’ suicidal plan to turn Medicare, the popular health insurance system for seniors, into vouchers that would funnel money to private, for-profit insurance companies.
The result is as if Washington were on another planet from the rest of the country (many Americans would argue this is hardly a new phenomenon). The noisiest battle in the nation’s capital is over raising the statutory debt limit – a game of chicken in which Republicans are demanding, in return for their votes, caps on future federal spending while Democrats insist on preserving the possibility of tax increases on the wealthy. Countless budget analysts are combing through endless projections of government revenues and expenditures in five or 10 years. Think tanks and blue-ribbon panels are issuing voluminous reports on how to tame the budget deficit in decades to come. The president, meanwhile, is trying to appear as fiscally austere as possible – keeping a lid on non-defence discretionary spending, freezing the wages of civil servants and offering his own deficit-reduction plans.
Washington’s paralysis in the face of a stalled recovery is bad news – not just for average Americans but for the world. Ironically, it also worsens America’s future budget crisis because it postpones the day when the debt begins to shrink as a proportion of GDP. Yet as the 2012 campaign season looms, the prospects for sensible policy seem to decrease by the day.
Feel good about where we are headed now?
The last month has been a horror show for the U.S. economy, with economic data falling off a cliff, according to Mike Riddell, a fund manager at M&G Investments in London.
"It seems that almost every bit of data about the health of the US economy has disappointed expectations recently," said Riddell, in a note sent to CNBC on Wednesday.
"US house prices have fallen by more than 5 percent year on year, pending home sales have collapsed and existing home sales disappointed, the trend of improving jobless claims has arrested, first quarter GDP wasn’t revised upwards by the 0.4 percent forecast, durables goods orders shrank, manufacturing surveys from Philadelphia Fed, Richmond Fed and Chicago Fed were all very disappointing."
"And that’s just in the last week and a bit," said Riddell.
Pointing to the dramatic turnaround in the Citigroup "Economic Surprise Index" for the United States, Riddell said the tumble in a matter of months to negative from positive is almost as bad as the situation before the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008.
Wall Street is having a hard time figuring out what to do now that the U.S. economy appears to be sputtering and yields are so low, Peter Yastrow, market strategist for Yastrow Origer, told CNBC.
"What we’ve got right now is almost near panic going on with money managers and people who are responsible for money," he said. "They can not find a yield and you just don’t want to be putting your money into commodities or things that are punts that might work out or they might not depending on what happens with the economy.
"We need to find real yield and real returns on these assets. You see bad data, you see Treasurys rally, you see all bonds and all fixed-income rally and then the people who are betting against the U.S. economy start getting bearish on stocks. That’s a huge mistake."
Stocks extended losses after the manufacturing fell below expectations in May and the private sector added only 38,000 jobs during the month.
"Interest rates are amazingly low and that, thanks to Ben Bernanke, is driving everything," Yastrow said. "We’re on the verge of a great, great depression. The [Federal Reserve] knows it.
"We have many, many homeowners that are totally underwater here and cannot get out from under. The technology frontier is limited right now. We definitely have an innovation slowdown and the economy’s gonna suffer."
However, he said he wouldn’t sell stocks.
"Any bears out there better be careful because the dividend yields on these stocks look awesome relative to all the other investment vehicles out there," Yastrow said. "So bears are going to have to find a new way to express their discontent with the U.S. economy."
And here's Robert Reich's take on the whole thing.
The US economy was supposed to be in bloom by late spring, but it is hardly growing at all. Expectations for second-quarter growth are not much better than the measly 1.8 per cent annualised rate of the first quarter. That is not nearly fast enough to reduce America’s ferociously high level of unemployment. The labour department will tell us on Friday whether the jobs situation improved in May, but there has been no sign of a surge in hiring. Nor in wages. Average hourly earnings of production and non-supervisory employees – who make up 80 per cent of non-government workers – dropped to $8.76 in April. Adjusted for inflation, that’s lower than they were in the depths of the recession.
Meanwhile, housing prices continue to fall. They are now 33 per cent below their 2006 peak. That is a bigger drop than recorded in the Great Depression. Homes are the largest single asset of the American middle class, so as housing prices drop many Americans feel poorer. All of this is contributing to a general gloominess. Not surprisingly, consumer confidence is also down.
The recovery has stalled. It is unlikely that America will find itself back in recession but the possibility of a double dip cannot be dismissed. The problem is not on the supply side of the ledger. Corporate profits are still healthy. Big companies continue to sit on a cash hoard. Large and middle-sized companies can easily borrow more, at low rates. The problem is on the demand side. American consumers, who constitute 70 per cent of the total economy, cannot and will not buy enough to get it moving. They justifiably worry that they will not be able to pay their bills, or afford to send their children to college, or to retire. Banks, with equal justification, are reluctant to lend to them. But as long as consumers hold back, companies remain reluctant to hire new workers or raise the wages of current ones, feeding the vicious cycle.
The timing is unfortunate. Foreign consumers will not help much even if the dollar continues to slide. Europe’s debt crisis and embrace of austerity, Japan’s tragedy and China’s fiscal tightening have reduced global demand. At the same time, the federal stimulus in the US has almost run its course. The Federal Reserve is about to end its $600bn of purchases of Treasury bills, designed to bring down long-term interest rates and make it easier for homeowners to refinance. Worse yet, state governments – starved for revenue and constitutionally barred from running deficits – continue to cut programmes. Local governments are now in worse shape, laying off platoons of teachers and firefighters.
Under normal circumstances, this would be the time for the federal government to take bold action to ward off a double dip. For example, it could put more cash in peoples’ pockets while giving employers an extra incentive to hire by exempting the first $20,000 of earnings from payroll taxes, for a year or two. It could lend money to state and local governments. It could launch a new Work Projects Administration (modelled after its antecedent during the Great Depression) to put the long-term unemployed to work on public projects. It could amend the bankruptcy law to allow people to include their prime residences in personal bankruptcy, thereby giving homeowners more leverage to get mortgage lenders to mitigate the terms of their loans.
But these are not normal circumstances. America has been through a devastating recession that poked a giant hole in the federal budget. And with a presidential election coming up next year, both parties are already manoeuvring for tactical advantage. Since taking over the House of Representatives in January, Republicans have focused on cutting government spending and paring back regulations. Their colleagues in the Senate, whose leader has proclaimed his major goal to unseat President Barack Obama, are almost as single-minded. Cynics might suspect Republicans of quietly hoping the economy stays rotten up until election day.
Democrats, meanwhile, are behaving as if they are powerless to affect the economy, even though a Democrat occupies the White House and his appointees run the federal government. They would rather not dwell on the slowdown because they do not want to spook the bond market or add to the prevailing gloom (Jimmy Carter’s ill-fated comment about the nation’s “malaise” during the stagflation of the late 1970s has served as a permanent admonition for presidents to stay upbeat). Democrats are staking their electoral hopes on continuing disarray among Republican presidential aspirants, as well as the Republicans’ suicidal plan to turn Medicare, the popular health insurance system for seniors, into vouchers that would funnel money to private, for-profit insurance companies.
The result is as if Washington were on another planet from the rest of the country (many Americans would argue this is hardly a new phenomenon). The noisiest battle in the nation’s capital is over raising the statutory debt limit – a game of chicken in which Republicans are demanding, in return for their votes, caps on future federal spending while Democrats insist on preserving the possibility of tax increases on the wealthy. Countless budget analysts are combing through endless projections of government revenues and expenditures in five or 10 years. Think tanks and blue-ribbon panels are issuing voluminous reports on how to tame the budget deficit in decades to come. The president, meanwhile, is trying to appear as fiscally austere as possible – keeping a lid on non-defence discretionary spending, freezing the wages of civil servants and offering his own deficit-reduction plans.
Washington’s paralysis in the face of a stalled recovery is bad news – not just for average Americans but for the world. Ironically, it also worsens America’s future budget crisis because it postpones the day when the debt begins to shrink as a proportion of GDP. Yet as the 2012 campaign season looms, the prospects for sensible policy seem to decrease by the day.
Feel good about where we are headed now?
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