Friday, November 26, 2010

NORTH KOREA THREATENS WAR. TOO MANY UNKNOWNS FOR PANIC

North Korea has threatened all out war as joint exercises begin to take place between South Korea and the US. I have studied the North Korean conflict for some time and have determined there are too many variables at this point to start sending off warning signals. True, what has occurred already is beyond the normal for the area but unless the North Koreans have a strategy to win, this is just more posturing. This may be especially true as Kim Jong Il's son, Kim Jong Un, may be the de facto ruler right now with his father a figurehead only. His deteriorating health lately has been the source of much speculation and it is this piece that has me worried. Un is an untried and possibly unready leader in control of a nuclear arsenal. This also helps prove my point that war shouldn't be entered into lightly (cough cough Iraq, hack, hack Afghanistan, wheeze, Vietnam) because all you do is prolong the situation, causing many more lives than if you just fought every war as if your survival was at stake. If any of those wars had been fought to its utmost, or if we had taken over the world back in the forties when we had nuclear supremacy, we wouldn't be looking at the possible end of the world scenarios playing out right now. If anyone wants to see how to fight a war look no further than Russia's attack on Georgia. It was quick, brutal and devastating. They didn't occupy the territory. They did things against the idiotic Geneva convention which should be just labeled how to lose a war in ten easy steps. And nobody said a word. Meanwhile, Israel and the US walk on eggshells every time someone does anything lethal to us. I do understand the need to not start a nuclear war. No one wants that. But that's something you should have thought about in the 90's. Now it's too late. Mankind has this ad hoc reasoning that just because something has never happened before, it is impossible for it happen in the future. As I talked with my sister this Thanksgiving, she told me not to worry about the inevitable end of this country as it would never happen. Things always get better, she said. Except they don't. All civilizations end and we stand at the cliff, looking into the abyss. I see no scenario where things will get better and trust me, I'm better than just about anyone on the planet at seeing how a certain action will impact everyone and everything around them. A 181 IQ and the ability to read at the speed of light help. There are too many people with their heads in the sand right now, clearly seen by the nomination or election of the tea party idiots recently. And it is because of this that our end is inevitable. We follow the path of Rome and Nazi Germany and we all know what happened with them. Does anyone really believe that the true followers of either group ever thought things would end? Of course not. But some like myself do understand Yeats: "All things fall apart. The center will not hold." But this flare up with North Korea is not a foregone conclusion either. The North Koreans are well known for using conflict as a bargaining chip. The worry is that if Un is in control and he pushes too hard, a big war could be in the cards. China has done their usual fence sitting position on this and as Iran, China and Russia have stopped pegging their currency to the dollar, their future positions may be more hostile to US interests. There are scenarios where all of this could be a pretense to a war. Any of them could launch a EMP pulse over the continent and black out most of North America. Our missiles would be unaffected by such a thing and we would fire back everything we had at the offending countries, and if the source was unknown we'd hit Iran and North Korea for good measure. Our society is collapsing. The RAND group said two years ago the only war to save us is a big big war. Maybe this is it. Maybe not. More as it becomes available.

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