Sunday, June 17, 2012

DOUCHEBAG OF THE WEEK: BANKS

Due to any sense of transparency from banks world wide as to their vulnerability in the credit default swap and derivative market, tomorrow could either be a slight speed bump for the world economy or an apocalyptic mess. Let's see those runner ups.

1)German Police-Shockingly, this has nothing to do with police brutality or malfeasance and just abject stupidity. For the past nine months, a young man has claimed that he spent the last five years living in the forest after a car accident took his mother and he and his father took to woods living. After his father died, he went in search of civilization. Turns out the whole story was not true. His real name is Robin Van Helsum and was reported missing by his girlfriend last September. The sad part is it took the German police nine months to figure out he was lying, which seemed readily apparent from day one as his appearance didn't suggest woods living for an extended period of time. Not to mention the fact it took them nine months to release his picture to the press where he was easily identified. Morons.

2)Ray Dolin- This guy will be long remembered as one of the douchiest people EVER. Ray Dolin was writing a book called "Kindness," which he was "researching" by hitch hiking across America. While going through Montana, Dolin claimed a pickup stopped, as if to pick him up, and then shot him in the arm. He drove off but not before Dolin got his licence plate. Authorities later arrested Lloyd Christopher Danielson III, 52, and charged him with felony assault. There was only one problem: much like Forest Boy, the story was totally not true. That charge was dropped Thursday, although Danielson remained in custody, accused of being under the influence of drugs or alcohol when he was arrested. So assmunch shot himself and blamed an innocent man for the sole purpose of publicity for his book. What a fucknut. I seriously hope the book deal is dead because if it does get published, I will punch anyone I see buying it.

3)Jersey Shore, PA- First, this is a strange name for a town as it is nowhere near the Jersey Shore. Second, this town is going to be an awful place to live soon. Fracking from Aqua America is causing a huge protest, especially to 30 families being evicted from a trailer park so this corporation can poison it. Fracking is the process of using high speed jets of water to push out pockets of natural gas and can, as a consequence, cause drinking water to be flammable and toxins to be pushed out along with the gas. It has long been rumored to be the reason for earthquakes in places like Ohio. The residents evicted under eminent domain, which the Supreme Court ruled in favor of Big Business on, go figure, were given a paltry sum of $2500 to move even though costs were as much as $10,000 higher. Protesters camped out until the local stormtroopers forcibly removed them. The governor, Tom Corbett, has a financial stake in Aqua America so no help there. This town will soon have water you can double as a fuel source. Awesome.

4)Rock of Ages/That's My Boy- Studio heads are having a fit as yet another weekend box office disaster blew up in their faces. Rock of Ages, based on the play and never a good sign, died at the theaters this weekend pulling in a paltry $15 million. The story was horrid and the music terrible, unless Glee-like soulless remakes are your cup of tea, and considering the amount it brought in, it wasn't. Stop making such shitty films that no one wants to go see. On top of that was Adam Sandler's latest film which made a shockingly low $13 million. Up until last year, I liked Adam Sandler movies and saw a few of them in the theater. But after Just Go For It, Jack and Jill, the Zookeeper, and the atrocious Bucky Larson, I think a lot of people have had it with him. You cannot put that many awful, and I do mean AWFUL, movies in a year and expect your fans to forgive you. Apparently they haven't because this is one of the worst openings for one of his pictures ever. There are way too many shitty films this year AGAIN. Start getting better screenplays you idiots. Examine The Avengers on what you need to do to save your rapidly dwindling product.

5)Russia- These assholes are going to get us all killed. Czar Putin is one of the most dangerous leaders of Russia since Stalin and to pretend otherwise is dangerous. Russia is sending attack helicopters to Syria and possibly troops which is completely against UN rules. If Russia is violating them, expect NATO to follow. Word is that plans are being drawn up by the Pentagon for any kind of attack that the President may deem necessary. This could lead to a massive war, possibly nuclear. More as it becomes available.

6)UN-This is with a doubt a worthless organization. The UN troops in Syria have been pulled out after coming under attack. As they are unarmed, it made it difficult to do anything of any substance. The people are pissed, worried that Assad will double his attacks after they leave, a valid worry. If you are going to get in war zone, weapons are probably something you should have, not a baton and some mean words. The UN has become a joke, just like the League of Nations before it and maybe it's time to try something else because all I hear from them is one bad idea after another.

7)Republicans- Thought I'd forget about them didn't you? But no, the President did something good this week by stopping the deportation of illegal alien children under eighteen who have been raised in this country. The GOP has been surprisingly muted on this matter, probably not wanting to piss off any Hispanics that might still vote for them. This is a good law as it formally punished people who had no say in where their parents took them. We still have an immigration problem, albeit much smaller as there are no jobs here any more for them, and could be solved by demanding SS numbers for all workers. No other country has this problem because of regulations, a dirty word to the GOP but necessary to prevent abuse. Corporations love slave labor however and are fighting to keep those borders open.

8)Egypt- Elections, most likely fixed, are going to come down between the Muslim Brotherhood and a Mubarak crony. Needless to say, the majority of Egypt is not happy with either choice. Why does that sound familiar?

9)Greece-Their elections today could spell doom for the world economy. Depending on the outcome, Greece could leave the Euro, setting off a domino that no can foresee the results. That is not hyperbole. More on that next. What Greece decides could mean life or death for the world economy. And the biggest factor on all of this depends on banks.

10)Banks-Turns out, no one on earth has any idea what the effects of the Greek elections will have on the world economy. The reason for this is that banks have total non-transparency when it comes to credit default swaps and their exposure to the derivative market. As the major banks have no idea how intertwined any other bank is leveraged, they are as nervous as the rest of us. Across the planet, the world elite are bracing for a shockwave of unknown strength that could devastate us all. Worst case scenarios are a 30% drop in world stocks, massive selling of precious metals, bank runs and  even possibly hyperinflation. One party, Syriza, has pledged to reject the terms of the bailout and any anti-austerity measures. If they win what will happen is that Greece will lose any help from the EU and will be forced out of the Euro. Much like the Lehman Brothers collapse in 2008, this could lead to big loses, especially big banks if the derivative market blows up, which would destroy the world economy at that point.

Let's look at possible outcomes. Greece rejects the Euro and resumes with the drachma. This would lead to a surge in their inflation, at least 35% in the first year alone, most likely more. The banks would be locked out of the lending markets so Greeks would print more money, further devaluating their currency.

The EU would then have to get investors to keep buying bonds from the other PIIGS countries to keep them from collapsing as well as borrowing costs will shoot upward. But as the EU lacks a centralized monetary system, this appears to be a short lived solution. If they fail to assure bond investors about the stability of the market, they will flee like the house is on fire. And that could lead to contagion, which sounds as bad as it is, as it spreads like a disease. If Greece leaves the Euro, traders may get squirlly about investing more money in bad economies and start selling them, driving interest rates up. This raises borrowing costs and could doom some banks throughout the EU. Bank runs will then occur as people rush to get as much out of possible before their money goes poof, something already occurring in Greece, Spain and even Italy. At this point, nobody is lending to anyone, ala 2008 all over again.

Here's where things get dicey. If all that occurs, contagion will spread across the pond to the US and infect our banking system. With unknown leverage on credit default swaps and the derivative market, the whole system could crash. Banks use swaps to sell insurance on loans. After lending the money to whoever, investors can take out protection on the amount loaned. If the loan goes bad, the banks that sold the insurance cover the loss. However, as JP Morgan discovered in their $7 billion loss plus traced to a hedge against the Euro crisis, even the safest banks can get screwed. If traders think other countries will default like Greece, the selling of government binds will drive up interests rates and also the cost of insuring the swap debts.

With the derivative market, things could get far worse. As we have no idea how much debt US banks hold through credit default swaps, we have no idea how bad such a scenario will play out. If the banks have very little, there won't be a huge problem. If they are up to their eyeballs in it, the world economy will completely collapse.

There is also the possibility that as Europe has a large amount of mortgage bonds, if they are forced to sell, mortgage rates could jump, killing a fragile market.  The only people buying houses are doing so because of low interests rates. Those rates jumps and the housing market will die on the vine.

So tomorrow should be very interesting. And congratulations banks because of your super secrecy, no one on Earth has any idea what will happen. You are indeed douche bags of the week.

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