OSCAR NIGHT IS COMING: WHO WILL WIN?

Some Oscar telecasts are as fun to watch as a root canal but this year promises some interesting moments. Both Adele and Shirley Bassey are set to perform their respected Bond Themes and rumors have been circulating that all six former and current James Bonds will share the stage when the Academy celebrates fifty years of Ian Fleming's super spy. That alone would make me watch. The movies this year aren't some of the Hollywood drek from previous years (Trip to Bountiful, Master and Commander and Winter's Bone come to mind) and some, like Beasts of the Southern Wild, were surprisingly good. So let's handicap the nominees and see who will likely win.

Best Picture

Amour
Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Django Unchained
Les Misérables
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty
Argo has all the momentum and easily one of the best pictures nominated. Expect this one to win. All of the films here deserve to be nominated, a rarity as there is always one stinker in the bunch.

 Best Actor

Bradley Cooper in Silver Linings Playbook

Daniel Day-Lewis in Lincoln

Hugh Jackman in Les Misérables

Joaquin Phoenix in The Master

Denzel Washington in Flight

Another no brainer as Daniel Day Lewis will win for Lincoln. Everyone else can shred their speech as they have zero chance of giving one.

Best Actress

Jessica Chastain in Zero Dark Thirty

Jennifer Lawrence in Silver Linings Playbook

Emmanuelle Riva in Amour

Quvenzhané Wallis in Beasts of the Southern Wild

Naomi Watts in The Impossible

A toss up between Chastain and Lawerence but I have a feeling Lawrence will win in a close race. Zero Dark Thirty pissed off the liberal crowd with the graphic torture scenes that have garnered some suspicion as to whether they were effective or not and that alone may cost Chastain the Oscar. Many have questioned why Naomi Watts is here at all, so that nod has no chance. Wallis is too young. Riva is a dark horse who may pull an upset but that is a long shot at best.

Best Supporting Actor

Alan Arkin in Argo

Robert De Niro in Silver Linings Playbook

Philip Seymour Hoffman in The Master

Tommy Lee Jones in Lincoln

Christoph Waltz in Django Unchained

This could go any which way as different people have won different awards leading up to the Oscars. Hoffman seems unlikely as does Waltz, who just won a couple years back. It's a three way horse race between Arkin, De Nero and Jones, but I give the edge to Jones with Arkin a close second if people thought Argo was snubbed for director. De Nero was good in Silver Linings Playbook but I don't see him winning here.

Best Supporting Actor

Amy Adams in “The Master”

Sally Field in “Lincoln”

Anne Hathaway in “Les Misérables”

Helen Hunt in “The Sessions”

Jacki Weaver in “Silver Linings Playbook

I expect Hathaway to win this hands down. Helen Hunt could be a dark horse for her performance that required her to be completely naked at 50 and still look hot.

Best Director

“Amour” Michael Haneke

“Beasts of the Southern Wild” Benh Zeitlin

“Life of Pi” Ang Lee

“Lincoln” Steven Spielberg

“Silver Linings Playbook” David O. Russell

Affleck would have won had the Academy actually nominated him with only Haneke being the "WTF is that guy doing in this category" nominee. Spielberg will win with Ang Lee a possible upset. The rest are happy to be nominated in what is constantly the worst nominations every year. I swear the people who get nominated in this category are always not nearly as good as people left off.

Best Animated Feature

“Brave” Mark Andrews and Brenda Chapman

“Frankenweenie” Tim Burton

“ParaNorman” Sam Fell and Chris Butler

“The Pirates! Band of Misfits” Peter Lord

“Wreck-It Ralph” Rich Moore

Brave has no business being here and I hope to God it does not win. ParaNorman was great and I am rooting for that but I have a feeling it will between Frankenweenie and Wreck it Ralph with the latter taking home the prize.

Adapted Screenplay

“Argo” Screenplay by Chris Terrio

“Beasts of the Southern Wild” Screenplay by Lucy Alibar & Benh Zeitlin

“Life of Pi” Screenplay by David Magee

“Lincoln” Screenplay by Tony Kushner

“Silver Linings Playbook” Screenplay by David O. Russell

Argo wins this one hands down although Life of Pi was equally fantastic an adaptation and may be a surprise winner.

Orginal Screeplay

“Amour” Written by Michael Haneke

“Django Unchained”Written by Quentin Tarantino

“Flight” Written by John Gatins

“Moonrise Kingdom” Written by Wes Anderson & Roman Coppola

“Zero Dark Thirty” Written by Mark Boal

Quentin Tarintino wins if the Academy members can stand the word "nigger" being used a zillion times. If not, Zero Dark Thirty will win, regardless of the torture flap.

Best Song

“Before My Time” from “Chasing Ice”
Music and Lyric by J. Ralph

“Everybody Needs A Best Friend” from “Ted”
Music by Walter Murphy; Lyric by Seth MacFarlane

“Pi’s Lullaby” from “Life of Pi”
Music by Mychael Danna; Lyric by Bombay Jayashri

“Skyfall” from “Skyfall”
Music and Lyric by Adele Adkins and Paul Epworth

“Suddenly” from “Les Misérables”
Music by Claude-Michel Schönberg; Lyric by Herbert Kretzmer and Alain Boublil

For the first time in a long while, the songs nominated don't suck hard. Adele wins easily here.

As for the rest of the awards, who cares. Let's see how right I am Monday morning.