Monday, November 3, 2014


I am a statistician. I have a degree in Anthropology which requires years of statistic studies. I currently work for several websites and researchers doing just that. In the last election, I got 49 out of 50 states right six months before the election. I screwed up on Florida which was always way too close to call and I felt would go red, instead of blue like it did. But still, I got almost 100% accuracy half a year before anyone else, including Nate Silver (whose site I still love).
But now Nate Silver, CNN, Fox News and every other media outlet is saying tomorrow is done deal, that the GOP will win at least seven seats. I am not so sure and here is why.

There are nine competitive states tomorrow: NH, KENTUCKY, NC, IOWA, ALASKA, GEORGIA, KANSAS, ARKANSAS, and LOUISIANA. NH and NC look like they will stay blue according to the most recent polls which show the Democratic candidates ahead. Now mind you the margin of error makes it a tie of sorts, except for one statistical factor. All polls skewer to the right. This is because of the way polls are done that overwhelmingly attract older, white voters. Young people and minorities are way underrepresented in all phone polls, and as majority of Americans do not identify with either party, right center voters (or independents) are the majority of any poll. This makes right leaning polls the norm, and as seen in the last election, not always accurate. So let's assume that NH and NC both go blue, that leaves seven states open.

The skewer factor makes polls in states like Alaska, highly unreliable. As of now, Dan Sullivan is ahead, and unless the polls prove wrong, the state will go red. Kentucky, Arkansas will also go red, proving people who live in those two state, especially Kentucky, are morons who are shooting themselves in the foot. That gives the right three of six needed.
Iowa polls show a tightening race with Jodi Ernst, who is no better than Sharon Angel or any other Tea Party idiot who has run these last few years, proving people of Iowa are not as stupid as Arkansas or Kentucky. This race could go either way but for now, let's say it goes red, giving the GOP four states, two to go. Kansas may very well go to Greg Orman, an Independent, so that state could be purple, and a true wildcard depending on who wins.

That leaves two states left, Georgia and Louisiana. And here lies the kicker. Both states have runoff laws that state that if no candidate hits 50% of the vote, a runoff is scheduled for January 6th of next year. This means that there is a very good chance the Senate will not be decided until then. Plus, it's a whole new election and who knows what will happened between then and now. The GOP would have to win both seats to get control and Georgia could very well go blue if hoards of democrats decide to vote specifically to keep the Republicans out of power. If people in Louisiana feel threatened, they too could swing the other way. What this means, is that control of the Senate by the Republican party is by no means a sure thing. They could still lose in places like Alaska, Iowa or even Georgia tomorrow, making the whole runoff thing moot if they do.
Tomorrow is important in some states, not so much here in a lot of the Northeast, minus NH of course. CT and MA have two awful candidates for governor and the only reason I am voting at all is for important ballot questions like giving sick days to employees which I wish had been law when I worked for every single company, no matter how big or small, that NEVER gave sick days. This made people ill come to work and as my immune system is and always has been, terrible, I come down with what ever people bring to work with them. I want sick days and the right wing nonsense as to why it is a bad idea is just that: nonsense. Stop believing right wing lies and look up things yourself. I am meticulous about this site and hate when people call me a liar with no proof to the contrary, as happens all the time in my comment section. If I am wrong, prove it. I will acknowledge my mistakes, although to be honest, that has almost never happened.

But get out tomorrow and vote, even if you don't want to because if the Republicans win in overwhelming numbers, this country will change drastically and not for the better.

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