There was a tremendous roar from both the ultra-conservatives and the democrats today when Paul Ryan was inexplicably picked as Mitt Romney's running mate today. Tea Party morons and far right conservatives see this as the best choice that will give them the White House, the Senate and the House in November. Democrats, independents and those living in the world of reality see this as the death knell of the Republican party. Guess which one I know is right?
The GOP is on life support right now, especially for the Presidency. Romney's numbers suck, his popularity is in the toilet and, in pandering to the far right in the same way the John McCain did with his right wing popular pick of Sarah Palin, has ended any chance of winning in November. Why? The highly unpopular Paul Ryan budget plan is an albatross around their neck and they seem incapable of noticing a dead bird hanging there.
Let's look at all the reasons this is terrible pick for the GOP. First, this choice does nothing to add support to his campaign beyond the people who were already going to vote for him. Other than the beyond worthless Rasmussen polls, Obama is ahead by at least seven points in every major poll. The Rasmussen poll is either a fluke (unlikely) or the polling method is flawed (very likely) as statistically there is no reasonable explanation how they can be so off from the rest of the pack with every other poll. Ryan was eviscerated when he released this plan two years ago and supporters were harassed in town hall meetings by die hard Republicans who hated the plan.
The Ryan Plan, for those who don't remember, plans on giving huge sums of money to the rich by taking every last social net available from the poor like severe Social Security, Medicare and Medicade cuts. They also want to end the post office, several important cabinet departments like energy and education, and give even more money to defense. Is this really the country the Tea Party wants, a dystopia run by Ayn Rand fanatics? Polls show that independents, the elderly, the young and pretty much anyone not brain dead is against this and putting a lightening rod on your ticket is going to get you electrocuted on a daily basis.
Even the timing of this pick is questionable as it was done on a Saturday morning opposite the Olympics, the morning box office receipts for how well the new Bourne movie did (something which is much more popular than you would guess for all would be media moguls like myself) and NASCAR but who watches that right? Hold on, I'm being told everyone watches NASCAR especially your core constituents. So way to bury your message on a slow news day when no one is paying attention. Does he think we will forget all about this be Monday?
Romney's polls show a real problem as he trails by seven points nationally and in key states like Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida. Speaking of Florida, Romney may have just given that to Obama. Recent polls taken before his VP debacle show Romney's popularity below Castro with Florida Hispanics. Add to that a groundswell of angry old people who HATE the Paul Ryan plan and Florida is slipping away from the GOP. All reliable polls have Obama up two to seven points in the state and this pick will not help shore up any new voters and will actually chase away new ones.
There were a lot of picks Romney could have made that would have helped his ticket. Marco Rubio may have helped shore up the state of Florida and win over some Hispanic votes. Ron Paul would have attracted younger voters and independents. Even Tim Pawlenty, bland as he is, would have better than this. Paul Ryan is an anchor, ala Palin, that will not aid the GOP one iota.
Romney is still facing a huge unlikeablity factor in which a majority of this country just doesn't like him. A recent poll said 63% want him to release his taxes, which he of course is refusing to do, making this story continue unabated. Worse, polling suggests that since a majority of people also hate the Paul Ryan Budget plan, Obama's lead doubles in some states with Ryan on the ticket. DOUBLES! How did Romney's inner circle not see that? Like the reverse of Obamacare, when the Ryan plan is explained to people, they loathe it. How well do you think that is going to play in the age of Super PACS? The ads are going to be brutal and chances are not only is the presidency lost but the house and senate as well. Democrats are doing a jig as Romney just handed him the greatest birthday gift of all times.
So what groups may not vote for Romney now: independents, unmarried women, the elderly, the young, minorities and anyone not basically a white male. Good luck winning with that strategy. For an in depth look at why this is a bad idea, here's a link to site that explain in great detail why:
http://www.democracycorps.com/National-Surveys/serious-attack-on-ryan-budget-takes-toll-on-mitt-romney/. Incidentally, that statistical way the info was gathered is sound as focus groups were used rather than just telephone calls, which bend statistical info toward conservative voters.
Here's the best part: the Ryan budget plan doesn't work. Every major economist worth his salt say it will add trillions of dollars to our deficit while ripping away safety nets from the most vulnerable, a fact that most Americans do not want. Yes, the democrats have been a terrible group of exploiting their opponents weakness but this comes gift wrapped all on its own.
So congratulations to the democrats out there who I predicted months ago would win the presidency again. Nothing I have seen lately makes me think otherwise. With Paul Ryan now on the ticket maybe they can get the House back as well and do some real good for the country with the obstructionist GOP out of the way.
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