If the election is fair, Obama will win 303-235. Nate Silver gives the current odds around 86% and Vegas 4-5 odds, neither favorable to Romney at all. Swing states show a slight lead by Obama in Ohio, Iowa, NH, Virginia, Colorado, and Nevada. Wisconsin and PA are no longer in play and will go blue without question. If Obama wins all those states and loses NC and FL to Romney, my prediction will be dead on, a number several other sites also see as realistic. FL and even NC could still go blue, but I think FL is the only real possibility for Obama and that NC will likely go red regardless.
Turnout will be the key and weather will play a role as it always does. There is another storm heading my way but won't impact the area until the following day. Inland areas like mine have little to worry about but those on the coast, especially those in hard hit areas, are going to take another beating. Maybe some of them might start thinking global warming IS a real problem then.
That same storm will impact the lower states, especially northern Florida which is more Republican than the southern Democratic area which will be subject to light rain at best. This could "dampen" (pardon the awful pun) the turnout and give the state to Obama if driving rains keep some voters home. NC will also be affected by high winds and rain which will decrease voter turnout which could help or hurt Obama depending on early voting stats.
The rest of country will be unaffected by weather with some light snow showers in Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan, Illinois and Indiana, and some rain in the Pacific Northwest which is par for the course for all those mentioned and should not keep anyone from voting. The bad news for Romney is all the bad weather is in states he has to carry and will be keeping voters away in places he needs to win. I swear it is like God is saying "this ass does not speak for me no matter how much he wishes it to be." Mitt will not be the Great One prophesied in Mormon books to become President when the Constitution is in tatters. Unless he tries to cheat to do it.
We have all read the rumors of smoke filled back rooms where men of power chuckle about fixing the election for Romney. While it is possible it is true, some, albeit questionable, evidence being seen shows the opposite. Conservative websites are saying certain machines in states like Ohio and Colorado have been caught switching votes from Romney to Obama. If true, and that is a big if, it means the powers that be really don't like Romney after all. It also sets the stage for Fox News and the like to scream bloody murder about a stolen election like they have NEVER seen that before, even though it happened at least twice in the last three elections, 2000 and 2004 with their help.
Stealing this election will be far more difficult than in 2004. Everyone is watching this election like a hawk and any discrepancy is going to be gone over with a fine tooth comb, for either side. It's also one of the reasons why we might not know who wins for some time. First off, we have just been hit by a major hurricane and some of the polling places are still without power, underwater or completely destroyed. This is going to lead to some confusion and NY and NJ have both said that voting may continue until after the election as well. While this may not affect the Presidential race, it will slow down counts for senate or local races. Add to that provisional ballots, early voting, absentee votes and even oversea votes counted before either side concedes if the race is really close which it probably won't be but you never know. If that happens, we won't know for weeks who won and we all know how patient the American citizen right now is when they appear to be ready to kill someone for a candy bar and warm place to sleep.
Romney appears screwed when all is said and done. Let us hope those polls are right because if Obama loses and voter fraud rears it's ugly head again, this country is going to riot. Likewise if Romney wins the popular vote and loses the elections. Either way, this country will splinter. Let us all hope Obama wins clean and fair (not that Fox News will ever see it that way) and the country can move on to more important thing, like Honey Boo Boo repeats, food porn and gazing at naval lint.
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