Thursday, September 10, 2015


It has been a wild week for polls. A new Iowa poll must have the Clinton camp spitting nails because it has Sanders one point ahead now. I am so tired of hearing how neither Trump nor Sanders can not only not win the nomination but would get clobbered in the general election, unless of course that is the match-up and then one has to win. After watching the pundits nationwide utterly fail to show any discretion after the last debate, in which Trump "sucked" while Walker and Bush nailed it (the exact opposite of reality for anyone who watched it), they are still determined to force a Bush/Clinton narrative down our throat. The public however, seems to have other ideas.

And now we keep hearing how Carla Fiorina is on the rise, which is odd because as someone who analyzes poll data for a living, and whose national polls echos, has not risen above three percent nationally since forever. She has done well in a couple of state polls and that's it. It doesn't help that of all the candidates in this race from either side, she is easily the worst choice. I would rather say the words President Huckabee than her name. At least everyone else has some sort of record to run on, while she ran HP into the ground while rewarding herself with huge golden parachutes and fired 30,000 people in the process. Yeah, she'd be great.

But recent polls show Trump on the rise and with good reason: he is still the best candidate for President on the GOP side. He is the only one to say the TPP is terrible (something Hillary won't take a stand on like everything else in her campaign), won't cut Social Security (unlike everyone else who wants to cut it down to nothing) and thinks raising taxes on the rich is a good idea (who in the GOP would back that idea?). The rest of the clown car is hell bent on doing the opposite which would decimate this country.
Bush had a new set of ads for NH airing and while I will admit they were good political ads demonstrating his "strengths," they still stretch the truth something fierce. However, unlike Hillary who spent $2.2 million just in NH only to see her numbers plummet, he actually said what he planned on doing, even if I don't believe him for one red second. Hillary's were some of the worst I have ever seen, focusing on her mother and her status as a grandmother while offering not one idea of her plans for the future which so far are frustratingly vague.

As it stands right now between Trump at 32% and Carson at 19%, the rest of the GOP is fighting for relevance. After that it is single digits for everyone else. Bush is at 9%, Cruz at 7% then Huckabee and Walker at 5%. The rest poll is at three percent or lower, like Graham whose numbers are now statistically zero. Ouch! Time to quit dude. It seems very likely at this point that Trump will be the nominee and if his opponent turns out to be Hillary, he may win. However, her viability is fading fast, leading the establishment democrats scrambling hinting that if Biden doesn't run, Warren (a real long shot there), Kerry (God NO!) or even Gore may enter. I think those are more fantasy than reality and Sanders still has a real chance at the nomination and a chance to win, to the horror of Wall Street executives everywhere. To be honest, the status quo has real reason to worry if either the leading outsiders make it to the high office.

Meanwhile the GOP is doing their best to sabotage any hope for 2016 with several high profile snit fits. First, in the zillioneth attempt to get rid of Obamacare, a Federal Judge has ruled that some sort of cost sharing plan that Obama had with health care operators was unconstitutional, once again sending this almost certainly to the Supreme Court. Groundhog Day anyone?

Then there is the GOP revolt over the Iran deal, claiming that since they didn't get all the documents they requested, the 60 day clock hasn't started yet and they still have months to try to derail it. The problem with this tactic is legally they aren't allowed to get the documents they requested as they pertain to foreign governments, so in essence, this would stall the plan forever. However, the plan will go into effect September 17th with or without US involvement, and as the terms have been met according to the Iran deal, Obama will sign it into law regardless. This is sour grapes guys for a plan that may not be perfect, and no deal is, but it is the best we can hope for and not get into a nuclear war with Iran, which will be the final outcome. If they start to cheat, and I do expect them to, then we can start plans to end the world then.

All of this has put John Boehner's speakership at risk. That, combined with a possible government shutdown at the end of the month over Planned Parenthood funding, is causing a lot of waves within the ranks. Some are bitching that McConnell didn't use the nuclear option to make the filibuster a thing of the past, ignoring the fact that if they lose control of the House and Senate, a real possibility come 2016, liberals can advance their agenda unchecked. This is why democrats didn't undo it completely either. The lack of leadership from the GOP who have advanced exactly zero pieces of legislation over the last few years is making Republicans mental. They still have no job plan, other than tax cuts which don't work, no immigration plan beyond send em back to Mexico regardless of whether or not they are actually from there, and a tax plan that would be trickle down economics which are a proven failure. So far all I hear from them is abortion and gay people bad, rich people do not have enough money and poor people are stealing from us by demanding things like food and a roof over their heads. The shame of it all.

The reason Trump is ahead is that, and this is hard for me to even write, but he is the sanest choice out of the clown limo that is the GOP. No other candidate would even make me think twice about voting for them. Some would make me vote for, gasp, Hillary. Ugh, had to force some vomit back down writing that but if it came down to most of the GOP and Hillary I would be backing her, the same way I voted for Kerry over Bush, even though I hated both people. The good news is it seem increasingly unlikely that she can win, digging her hole deeper and deeper while facing a tide of anti-establishment revolt that is sweeping this country coast to coast. Sanders is the best candidate running. Help make him our next President. Please.

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