Thursday, October 20, 2016


I have been watching presidential debates since I was a teen and last night I saw something I never thought I'd see: a candidate tripping over his own dick and face planting hard. He has three moments that will play poorly these last few weeks, all but cementing what is going to be a historic loss. He began his plummet to the bottom when he said his first words in Spanish, which unfortunately was also a slur, when he called some illegal immigrants "bad hombres." You can guess how well this went over with Latinos. Then, his big, big, BIG mistake came when he idiotically refused to say whether he would accept losing the race, which is going to, setting the stage for a possible end of democracy moment. Lastly, for the cherry on top, during an exchange when Hillary was talking about protecting Social Security, he decided to interject that she was a "nasty woman." That did not play out with women and the rest, and Trump, is history.
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There is near a 100% chance of Hillary winning this thing, short of the biggest October Surprise of all times which is, and even if it did happen, it probably would still not be enough to give him the win at this point. He is toxic, damaged goods and may drag the Senate and House down with him. Any Republican running is going to be inundated with questions from reporters asking about their support or lack there of, neither of which is a good answer, while also fighting off whether they will recognize the election or not. Trump supporters and the GOP elite are not in step with one another and either side could become so disgusted with their choices, they stay home or vote against the Republican candidate out of spite, where there is some evidence this is happening in places like Arizona and NC. No matter how you slice it, this ends badly for Republicans.

Many are bringing up the false equivalent of Gore challenging the election in 2000. That happened because the margin was razor thin in many places, and as Florida was make or break for them both, had to come to court challenges. The Supreme Court screwed us when they picked Bush as the winner for no legal reasons and allowed two judges, Scalia and Thomas, to vote even though both had financial or personal interests in getting Bush elected. It is for that very reason that no sitting Justice should ever recuse themselves from any case no matter how biased it looks as the Republican ones NEVER do but scream bloody murder if the other side doesn't. Grow a set and tell them fuck off next time. The point of this was, after Gore lost, he conceded even though he had reason to fight on had he chosen to.

Kerry in 2004 noticed irregularities in Ohio, which was stolen from Kerry as later results showed, but he also backed down for the good of the country. I actually wish he had fought a little harder on this one because the voter fraud in this instance was blatant. But he didn't and the country moved on. Trump is not going to let this go until there is no where else for him to go. However, if the backlash starts affecting his brand, as signs already point to problems in some of his five star hotels that the rich and famous are avoiding now, this could lead to disaster down the road for the orange hued nightmare.

Contrary to right wing myth, the last two elections were dead on with exit polls and other stats. Nobody cheated to get Obama elected. They won't rig an election they know is going their way so why bother. This election will be no different. Other than what is always a few suspicious maneuvers, that may or may not be intentional, this election will match perfectly with the exit polls as Trump is going to lose and lose badly. How badly you ask? Hillary is now running ads in Utah, where she is tied, Arizona, where she is ahead and Alaska and Texas, where she is slightly behind. That is not good news if you are a Republican who can see that chances are good a lot of states Romney won easily in 2012, Trump may lose in 2016.
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If the election was held today chances are good that the Electoral College would be Hillary 368 to Trump's 170. Ouch. To put that in perspective, Obama got 332 to Romney's 206. That is a landslide win and gives Hillary a mandate, and hopefully a blue House and Senate, and maybe, just maybe, we can get some stuff done that the GOP has dragged their feet for decades on. History shows democrats grow the economy better than Republicans so here's hoping that stat continues.

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