Tuesday, October 25, 2016


My posts will be spotty for the next few weeks as the combination of my day job analyzing poll numbers combined with a deadline for other projects, like my almost finished book, take precedent. But today, we can talk about not if Trump will lose but by how much. I know some of you are screaming about the polls being wrong, just like some did in 2012 to hilarious results, but Hillary Clinton has a 90% chance of being the next president. So, unless polling data is way off, which there is a slight chance of, Trump is going to lose worse than any Republican since Bob Dole.
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How bad is it? Texas is now in play. TEXAS! Romney carried Texas by over twenty points and Trump is barely registering there. Now mind you, some of that is because of changing demographics that is going to turn the state purple over time, but it's not there yet and still Trump is struggling. Rush Limbuagh, Karl Rove and Bill Kristol have all said that they screwed up not believing the polls in 2012 and are not going to make that same mistake again.

As Minnesota has moved into the lean Clinton node, if the election were held today, Clinton would have 272 solid votes for president and that is not including eight swing states like Ohio and Florida. Add in swing states she is likely to carry and that number rises to 333. If we go further and give her the rest of the swing states she might carry and that number is a staggering 396 votes, a feat that would be the worst defeat since Mondale. The funny part is that is more likely than a Trump win.

Trump is going to have a historic loss with women, college educated white men, black people, Latinos and the youngest voters. Trump has to hope that white non-college educated voters show up in droves because he would have to capture 80% of that vote (as well as depressed voting from potential Hillary voters who stayed home) and that seems outside the realm of possibility. The most likely scenario is that Trump voters stay home, either because they think the election is rigged or because they hate Trump AND Hillary, while Hillary voters show up en masse to either show their support or just to vote against Trump (the category I am in). If this does take place as polls suggest (democrats typically move toward the candidate late in the election process and away from Stein and Johnson, both of whom are in free fall), the Senate and even the House could be up for grabs.
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The Senate looks likely as Illinois and Wisconsin are likely to go blue, meaning they only need two states out of the eight that are left to get control. NH, PA, NV, NC and even Missouri and Indiana are in play. The House will be harder as they will probably get twenty seats but need ten more for control. If Republicans angry at Trump sit this one out, Democrats have a shot at it.

The long and the short of it is there will be little chance of vote rigging, as the last two presidential elections showed no sign of tampering as why would you need to swing a vote going your way. Hillary will do much the same which will be truly funny when Trump starts screaming about a rigged election and there is no proof of it at all.
Image result for anti republican cartoons 2016
Get out and vote blue. Give the democrats all the rope to hang themselves with. They will only have two years before the pendulum swings the other way in 2018 so if they get cracking, they may be able to fix a lot which wrong with the country. If they do, and things do get better for everyone, the GOP will be regulated to the dustbin of history.

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