Friday, October 19, 2012

PRESIDENTAL PROMISES, WHAT THE POLLS REALLY SAY AND WHAT OUR FUTURE LOOKS LIKE

We all know presidential promises aren't worth squat, especially among the two candidates we have to choose from. Obama broke just about every promise he made to get elected and all of those weren't the fault of the Republican filibuster machine. Likewise, Romney has a proven track record of saying one thing, changing his mind a hour later and then trying to tell people they were mistaken about the first time. However one of the main reasons politicians lie is because the American people, for the most part, are really too stupid to live. Walter Mondale tried to be honest with the people and he got shellacked by Reagan who then went on to do everything Mondale had said was going to be necessary to fix the economy. If either candidate tried to tell the people what they were actually going to do in office, they wouldn't make it off the platform before being stormed by an angry mob with torches and pitchforks.

It is a dark day for democracy when we have to hope that not only does Obama win but that he turns a hell of lot more moderate once back in office. My hopes are not high on that. But what is the alternative? Romney and Ryan are far worse than Obama for the key reason that the policies they are talking about are the exact same principles that got us into this mess. As I write this, the stock market is dropping due to investor fears over a rapidly declining Euro. It is only a matter of time before the entire EU experiment goes belly up and the world economy with it. If we have Romney in office when this happens, I hope you don't things like electricity and any health care because when the bottom drops, he and his rich cronies are going to do anything to keep their standard of living going while the rest of us suffer. Bet on it.

This election is one of the most important EVER and neither side should be all gung ho on who wins, especially Republicans who are not multi millionaires. Remember this parable: Hitler rose to power by claiming to be all things for all people. Socialists voted for him because he called his party "socialist," and talked about various socialist ideals, none of which he honored once in office. Jews voted for his fiscal policies and leadership. The poor voted for him because of his promise to cut taxes and raise their standard of living. Once Hitler got into office, all of the above were either arrested of put into ghettos that were far worse than how they had been living. Yet, they were the reason Hitler got into office in the first place. Now I am not calling Romney Hitler by any stretch of the imagination. However, the analogy above shows how people once in power can turn mightily on the very voters who put him there.

A Romney future is not a pleasant one to fathom. Imagine a world, where drug laws become even more stringent, where privacy is not even tolerated in one's own homes, where jobs are in free fall as well as wages, where at the whim of a local politicians you can disappear from the face of the earth with no legal recourse, where you can be killed for any reason, where corporations hold complete control over their employees, where freedom is all but lost. That is what some of you are voting for. Not that Obama has been much better at any of the above, but at least under him we won't be outlawing abortion and contraception, unions won't be strangled to death, regulations won't disappear completely for every big business on earth, water won't burst into flames in every faucet throughout America, our air won't be semi solid, drug users won't be used as slave labor, and wages won't fall to Chinese levels.

The polls, as screamed by our worthless MSM, all are beating us with a stick how close the polls are getting. Drudge Report, which is becoming less and less relevant every day I see some obvious anti-Obama story or vice verse, pro-Romney one, keeps crowing about Romney ahead in FL, VI, PA or any other state where a single poll shows a major shift toward the GOP candidate. The thing is, it's one poll, and half the time, not a very good one. If I look at seven polls over the last month and every one has Obama ahead by four and one poll run by a GOP firm had Romney suddenly at plus seven, something is wrong with that poll. If all the polls start showing a major shift toward one candidate or another, that's when you start to worry. But the fact of the matter is the presidential poll average has hardly changed in swing states since September and all have Obama ahead.

In order for Romney to win he must carry Ohio and the most recent polls as of today still have Obama up by four on average. This number has changed by less than one percent for months, meaning Romney has an uphill battle here. The unemployment number is lower than most states, women overwhelmingly prefer Obama by a three to one margin as well as heavy support from Latinos and blacks, and even Obama's sleepy debate performance didn't put much of a dent in the state. There are three other reasons for Romney to be very worried at this stage of the game.

One, early voting shows a huge advantage over Romney by a three to one margin. One third of the electorate uses early ballots and these people didn't even watch the debates. Two, military early voting is the lowest in decades. Instead of picking either of these two, many are staying out of the fray entirely. This is Romney's biggest issue. It isn't that people are not voting for Obama and going for Romney instead but staying home completely, a common Republican theme this year as a lot of people just don't like Romney. Some see little difference between the two and saying screw it. Three, and this the biggest factor that few polls take into account: there are other people running. Just because the media pretends they don't exist, doesn't mean they won't get votes.

Gary Johnson, the libertarian candidate, is suing in Federal Court to attend the final debate. It is a horrific determent to our country that other candidates aren't allowed in due to overly stingy rules that keep the stranglehold of our two party system. I hope he wins. Johnson has many policies I really like and I wish we could hear some of them on a national scale so others could chime in as well and maybe force the political narrative our way for once.

Johnson is on the ballot in 48 states and polls at around 3%. What that means is that in every state where he is on the ballot, Romney will lose 3% of the electorate. As Jill Stein, the Green Party candidate will be on 85% of the countries ballots and polls around 1%, that takes away slightly from Obama.Virgil Goode, of the Constitutional Party, is another candidate on the ballots in 26 states and a write in candidate in 16 others. He will also get around 1% of the vote. Between Johnson and Goode, Romney stands to lose 4% of the vote he would normally get while Obama only loses 1%. In any close race like Florida or Virginia, the state will go Obama under these circumstances just like Ralph Nader did to Gore in 2000. Nobody is talking about this as, under these numbers, the race isn't as close as the media wants it. If it's a runaway no one pays attention and those ratings have to be kept sky high regardless of the damage.

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