We keep hearing about Romney momentum, about how the polls are shifting right, how women are flocking to him in droves. Bullocks. The most recent polls show a small but significant shift back toward the blue as the VP debate helped gain the Democrats some traction. Tonight debate should solidify Obama's rise back to the top if history and logic have anything to say.
First, almost every incumbent President does better in the second debate than the first, the first Bush being the exception who killed his chances by appearing bored and got caught checking his watch during one question asked to him. Reagan was losing to Mondale at this point until he destroyed him in the second debate by appearing much more relatable. Republicans keep comparing Romney to Reagan, a stretch at best, but fail to see that in this analogy, Obama may be the Gipper after all.
Tonight's debate is town hall style, a forum that plays to Obama's strength. Who has more charisma with the average voter, Obama or Romney? Romney could overplay his hand here and appear as robotic and flip floppy as many already see him. If Obama comes across empathetic and reasonable, he will win and win big. If for some unseen reason, he flops, it may be game over then. But I see that as a very big if.
Libya is sure to come up for which the State Department has effectively neutered by throwing themselves on the grenade. Hillary Clinton has publicly said the White House had no knowledge of the security issues, a perfectly logical explanation. The President cannot be told about every security issue world wide or he would never get any work done. If Romney tries to use this, and he will, it could backfire with independents.
Meanwhile, the news keeps telling us what a close race it is. As someone who studies the polls, the methodology with which each poll is taken and the ability to weed out the bad ones, I can tell you Obama is still ahead in key states like PA and OH by an average of four to five points. This is not a statistical dead heat as the margin or error for these polls is usually less than 2%. Factor in third party candidates and early voting and Obama wins both these states easily.
But some polls like RCP are using very flawed and even questionable methods to game the race. Why is a five point lead in states like PA not enough to give the state to Obama as it is well below the margin for error? Why not Ohio, Michigan and Wisconsin, all of which are solidly in Obama's camp? And why is Florida not leaning Romney for that matter? Because they want this race close because it drives people to their website, to the news channel and other places for ratings and money. Make no mistake about it, Obama is still ahead, regardless of what you may hear from our questionable MSM.
The most honest poll averages, like the Huffington Post, are using dozens of polls from everywhere to get a clear snapshot of a close race but one in which Obama still has a significant lead in key states. Romney cannot win without Ohio and PA and right now, he has neither. Florida is also not a sure thing for Romney, especially if he blows it tonight, which I don't expect him to, but I also didn't expect Obama to sleepwalk through the last debate either.
Tonight is the most important night in Obama's career. Let's hope for all of our sakes he realizes it too.
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