Wednesday, August 12, 2015


Before we start with what may be an epic fall by the democratic front runner, let's take a quick look at the economy. In short, it sucks. Many an investors has began to sound the alarm bells about the emergence of another Hindenberg Omen (which lately has been a dud the last five times it showed up) and now the Death Cross. This, combined with a second straight day of a Chinese currency devaluation, has driven down the market in heavy trading, although it has risen steadily since midday, only down 54 points and we can all guess why it is going up when it really shouldn't be. All together now: IT'S RIGGED!
The Death Cross is described below from

That’s what technical analysts call it when the 50-day moving average falls below the 200-day mean, a formation that was achieved today as the gauge declined for the eighth time in nine days. The pattern is commonly interpreted as a signal price momentum is fizzling out.

 “If you don’t make any upside progress, the moving average will start to flatten and eventually turn down,” Jonathan Krinsky, chief market technician at MKM Holdings LLC, said by phone. “There are fewer and fewer stocks holding up the market, and that’s generally not a good thing.”

What this means is that fewer and fewer companies are able to use stock buybacks to grow stock prices as the prices have hit a ceiling for what they able to afford. In other words they have literally priced themselves out of business. Awesome.

There are a lot of reasons to worry but as external forces control the market rather than vice versa, as seen by today's inexplicable Dow recovery, who knows when the bottom will fall out. Keep a close watch if you have a huge stock portfolio so you do not get burned.

On to the main story which is Hillary facing problems from within and from outside her campaign. Bernie Sanders is looking like a real threat, now AHEAD of Hillary in NH 44-37 according to a new Boston Herald poll and has doubled his polls in Iowa. He is also attracting huge crowds and may be collecting far more money due to social networking, which may replace old style media and SuperPacs as the best way to raise money in the 21st century. Thank you Facebook.

Although she is still way ahead in the national polls, that may not be the case for much longer depending on how this whole email scandal works out. A gift for the GOP as this may finally be the nail in the Hillary coffin and not some wild Benghazi bullshit thing, Hillary may be in real trouble. It is alleged that she sent along several emails of a classified nature through her unsecured private email account: a misdemeanor but still a crime. It brought down General Petreaus and Sandy Berger before her. Even worse, two allegedly were of the highest classification level.

Now let's also be clear. This could be nothing more than GOP smokescreen nonsense as these guys cry WOLF with alarming regularity. The number of emails that were a problem have dropped from four to two, suggesting the inspector general cannot count. The FBI continues to say Clinton is not part of the probe meaning they could be focusing on staff who screwed up and not her. Until more comes out it's all guess work, but correct or not, it's affecting her campaign as her negative numbers continue to climb.

She only has one real opponent and that is Bernie Sanders. The other three running for the democratic spot all poll around 1% meaning my prediction that Martin O'Malley waited way too long to enter the race was spot on. He has gained zero traction as Bernie has all the momentum right now. Even if Joe Biden enters late, he'll have an uphill battle as well. If Hillary continues to falter, or it comes out that she lied about any of Emailgate, her campaign may come to a screeching halt.

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