Monday, August 8, 2016


And the hits keep on coming for Donald Trump. On top of sagging numbers nationwide comes a new problem in that a new Republican candidate is about to announce his candidacy as an independent and with the obvious monkey wrench it will throw into the Trump cog. And what powerhouse did they get to run? Mitt Romney? Newt Gingrich? No and no. Everybody say hi to Evan McMullin. And if you don't know who the hell Evan McMullin is, you are not alone.

As he has already missed the deadline in 22 states, this is a clear attempt to steal votes away from Donald Trump who has single handedly convinced many of us he is unfit for office. As two thirds of the country now see him as unhinged and dangerous, the chances for a Trump win are slipping rapidly into single digits. Now there is still a lot of time between now and November but if Hillary still has this lead by Labor Day it's over.

So who is this spoiler? He's a GOP hack, former CIA official and a Mormon apparently. What he isn't is electable. He is the proverbial fly in the ointment so to speak. While he has literally zero chance of winning, the one state he will be on the ballot on and could make a big difference is Utah. Trump is not popular there and if McMullin can siphon off enough votes, Hillary could take it and with it the election. Trump cannot win without Utah. Electorally speaking, he is facing a huge uphill battle.

The electoral college is tipped toward democrats from day one simply because there are more of us in key states. Red states all have single digit wins while blue states like NY, CA and even MA rack up the points quick. As of right now, Hillary is ahead 246 to 154 in votes. You only need 272 to win. In other words, Hillary only needs four swing states and it's over. Even better, she doesn't even need Ohio or Florida at all. With PA more and more out of reach, Trump HAS to win both Ohio and Florida to even have a chance at it and it may not even matter. If Hillary gets Wisconsin, Michigan, Virginia and Minnesota, it's over. Right now she is up anywhere from nine to fifteen points in every one of those states. That is bad bad news for Trump, especially as Minnesota polls show a dramatic shift away from Trump, along with other key states like NH, Missouri, Georgia and Arizona. NH I get, where he is down double digits now, but the other three are solid red that haven't gone that way in decades. Missouri and Arizona and tied and some polls have Clinton ahead by four in Georgia. If he can't hold onto every single state Romney won, it's over.

Unlike previous elections, I usually can tell what state will go which way with near 100% accuracy. In 2012, I was 49 out of 50 and I called that by July. Here it is in August and some states are still up in the air. Right now I would guess 347 Hillary to 191 for Trump and that is assuming that the three red states I mentioned above go Trump. It is also possible that several things could happen. One, Hillary could be hit by some unforeseen scandal, most likley due to Wikileaks who say they have hard proof she rigged the election and her numbers tumble. Two, her health scares which have been plastered about the Internet (most of which are bullshit) are actually true and she has to step aside. That one is highly unlikely. Three, a massive terrorist attack somewhere scares people into voting Trump. Short of one of those three things happening, Trump will not be president. The numbers just are not there and with the addition of another spoiler, on top of Gary Johnson, his path to victory is exceedingly narrow. That is good news because the evidence suggests he will kill us all stat.

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